Hessen Kassel vs FSV Mainz 05 II Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a Hessen Kassel win with a "+1.5 goals" combination, yet its own probabilities are unusually cautious at 45% home, 45% draw and only 10% away, so the advice is better read as a narrow lean than a confident call. That caution is partly explained by the comparison metrics, where Kassel dominate form (70 versus 30), attack (69 versus 31), defence (60 versus 40) and especially Poisson (86 versus 14), but the head-to-head split of 20 versus 80 is the one major category pointing the other way. The team analysis reconciles some of this tension: Kassel's 3-1-4 record is heavily home-weighted, with all three wins and a 5-2 best victory at the Auestadion, while Mainz II's 2-0-6 record includes a 5-0 away loss and no clean sheets anywhere. Kassel's goals profile reinforces the home skew, averaging 2.50 scored and 1.00 conceded at home against 1.00 and 2.80 away, whereas Mainz II average exactly 1.00 scored both home and away while conceding 2.80 on the road. The last-five records add a note of instability: Kassel have W-L-W-D-L form with two blanks in front of goal, and Mainz II have lost four of five, including a 5-0 defeat at SGV Freiberg, so neither side arrives in convincing rhythm. The goals analysis supports the "+1.5" element more than a clean-sheet outcome, since Kassel have gone over 1.5 in four of eight matches and Mainz II have conceded in every game, though Mainz II themselves have stayed under 2.5 in all eight. The head-to-head record is the clearest counterweight, with Mainz II winning six of the last ten meetings and three of the last four, including a 2-1 win at Stadion am Bruchweg and a 3-1 win at the Auestadion, which is why the model's 45% draw probability may be doing more work than the headline winner. Overall, the home-form, home-goal and Poisson evidence jointly justify the Kassel lean and the over-1.5 component, but the strong recent head-to-head edge for Mainz II and Kassel's mixed last five mean the prediction should be treated as a modest, uncertain edge rather than a reliable outcome.

Predicted winner

Hessen Kassel

Betting advice

Combo Winner : Hessen Kassel and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. FSV Mainz 05 II 2–1 Hessen Kassel (30 Nov 2025)
2. Hessen Kassel 3–0 FSV Mainz 05 II (09 Aug 2025)
3. Hessen Kassel 1–3 FSV Mainz 05 II (23 Nov 2024)
4. FSV Mainz 05 II 3–0 Hessen Kassel (28 Jul 2024)
5. FSV Mainz 05 II 4–1 Hessen Kassel (17 Nov 2023)