Herd vs Kvik Trondheim Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Herd a 45% home win probability and the draw an equal 45%, leaving Kvik Trondheim only 10%, which frames the advice of a Herd-or-draw double chance combined with over 1.5 goals as a cautious rather than emphatic position. That caution is understandable because the comparison metrics lean heavily toward Herd—form 57 to 43, attack 82 to 18, defence 56 to 44, Poisson 69 to 31, goals 83 to 17 and total 69.4 to 30.6—yet the head-to-head split of 100 to 0 rests on a single match, a 5-1 Herd away win in June 2026, so it should be treated as a small-sample signal rather than a durable pattern. Herd's overall record of 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses from 20 games is only mildly positive, and their recent form of one win, one draw and three defeats in the last five—including a 6-1 loss at Byåsen and a 1-4 home defeat to Melhus—tempers the strong attacking numbers, even though a 9-0 home win over Ranheim II shows the upside. Kvik Trondheim's 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses from 20 games, plus a last-five run of four straight defeats before a 3-2 win over Aalesund II, point to a side that has struggled badly, conceding 7-0 to Ranheim II and 6-0 at Volda while failing to score in four of those five matches. The goals analysis reinforces the over 1.5 element: Herd average 2.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game, with 12 of 20 matches going over 1.5 and 17 of 20 seeing at least one goal against, while Kvik Trondheim average 1.60 scored and 2.60 conceded, with 12 of 20 matches over 1.5 against and 18 of 20 conceding at least once. Kvik Trondheim's defensive fragility is especially visible in the minute breakdown, where they concede 25% of goals in the 76-90 window and 19.23% in both the 31-45 and 61-75 windows, suggesting late-game exposure that could support Herd's scoring chances. Herd's own scoring is concentrated after half-time—24.44% in the 46-60 window, 26.67% in 61-75 and 24.44% in 76-90—which aligns with the expectation of goals but also means the first half may be quieter than the raw averages imply. The main tension in the evidence is that Herd's recent form and defensive record are far from dominant, so the 45% draw probability looks like a genuine hedge rather than a formality, and the double chance plus over 1.5 goals combination reflects that uncertainty rather than a confident outright win.

Predicted winner

Herd

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Herd or draw and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Kvik Trondheim 1–5 Herd (20 Jun 2026)