Heming vs Ullern Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Heming avoiding defeat, pairing a 45% home win and 45% draw against only a 10% away win, with the advice combining that double chance with over 2.5 goals. That stance is broadly consistent with the comparison metrics, where Heming leads on attack (55 vs 45), defence (56 vs 44), Poisson (67 vs 33), goals (75 vs 25) and overall total (60.6 vs 39.4), while the form scores are level at 50 apiece. The head-to-head sample is tiny but points the same way, since the only meeting listed ended 3-1 to Heming away at Ullern, producing a 100-to-0 split in the h2h comparison. Heming's season record of 12 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 20 games, including 7 home wins, contrasts with Ullern's 6 wins, 2 draws and 12 losses, and Heming's five clean sheets against Ullern's none further supports the defensive gap. Recent form is more mixed than the season totals suggest, as Heming's last five read W-W-L-W-L with heavy wins over Frigg and Vålerenga II but shutout losses to Gamle Oslo and Stabaek, while Ullern's W-L-L-W-W includes a 6-2 home defeat to Asker and a 4-3 loss at IF Ready. The goals analysis explains why the over 2.5 element is plausible but not overwhelming: Heming average 2.50 goals for and 1.60 against, with 9 of 20 matches over 2.5, whereas Ullern average 2.00 for and 2.70 against, with only 5 of 20 over 2.5 despite conceding in every match. Heming's scoring is spread across the match, peaking at 24% in the 31-45 window, while Ullern's goals cluster late, with 24.39% in the 61-75 period, and Ullern's defensive leaks are heaviest in the 16-30 and 31-45 windows at 21.15% each. The main tension is that Ullern's poor defence and lack of clean sheets support goals, yet their own matches have often stayed under 2.5, so the combined advice rests more on Heming's superiority and the h2h result than on a strong over trend from both sides.

Predicted winner

Heming

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Heming or draw and +2.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

+2.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Ullern 1–3 Heming (25 Jul 2026)