Helges vs Gute Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model favours Gute as the winner, yet its own probabilities split evenly at 50% draw and 50% away with 0% for Helges, so the advice is a lean rather than a confident call. That lean is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Gute leads on form (82 versus 18), attack and defence (both 67 versus 33), Poisson (80 versus 20), goals (100 versus 0) and total (74 versus 26), while the head-to-head metric is the most extreme at 100 versus 0. The single head-to-head meeting, a 1-0 Gute home win on 30 May 2026, supports that direction but is a one-match sample and cannot carry the weight the 100% figure implies. Helges' broader record is bleak: 2 wins, 4 draws and 16 defeats in 22 matches, with 19 goals scored and 55 conceded, including a 0-5 home loss and a 5-0 away loss. Gute's 22-match record is more balanced at 8 wins, 5 draws and 9 defeats, with 35 scored and 32 conceded, and their 4-0 and 2-5 wins show a higher ceiling than Helges have managed. The goals analysis sharpens the contrast, as Helges average just 0.90 scored and 2.50 conceded per game, whereas Gute average 1.60 scored and 1.50 conceded, though Gute's away scoring drops to 1.30 and their away defence leaks 1.50. Recent form complicates the picture: Helges' last five are three defeats and two draws with only five goals scored, while Gute's last five are three wins and two defeats, including 3-0 and 4-0 home wins but also a 1-3 home loss and a 0-1 away defeat. Both teams' minute distributions suggest late goals are common, with Helges conceding 30.19% of their goals in the 61-75 window and Gute scoring 25.93% in the 76-90 window, which could matter if the game stays close. Overall, the evidence points toward Gute avoiding defeat more often than not, but the even draw-away split and Gute's own inconsistency mean the winner advice should be treated as a modest edge rather than a settled outcome.

Predicted winner

Gute

Betting advice

Winner : Gute

Home win probability

0%

Draw probability

50%

Away win probability

50%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Gute 1–0 Helges (30 May 2026)