Havlíčkův Brod vs Žďár nad Sázavou Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Havlíčkův Brod a 35% win probability and the draw another 35%, leaving Žďár nad Sázavou at 30%, which is why the advice is a double chance on Havlíčkův Brod or draw rather than a straight home win. That narrow edge is reinforced by the form comparison, where Havlíčkův Brod scores 64.00 against 36.00 for Žďár, and by the defensive split of 53.00 versus 47.00, although the attack metrics are identical at 50.00 and the head-to-head comparison is perfectly level at 50.00 apiece. The Poisson metric is the clearest counterweight, favouring Žďár 61.00 to 39.00, so the model's own components are not unanimous and the overall 51.50 to 48.50 total edge for Havlíčkův Brod is correspondingly slim. Recent form supports the home side only partially: Havlíčkův Brod's last five read W-L-D-W-L with a 3-1 home win over Sparta Brno and a 4-1 away win at Bedrichov, but also a 0-2 loss at FS Třebíč and a 1-3 home defeat to Kuřim. Žďár's last five is more discouraging, W-D-L-L-L, with the 5-0 away win at FS Třebíč standing out against three straight defeats in which they scored only once across those matches. The season-level goal data complicates the picture further, since Havlíčkův Brod average 2.30 goals at home but only 1.00 away, while Žďár average 2.70 away yet just 1.00 at home, suggesting both teams' output is strongly venue-dependent. Defensively, Havlíčkův Brod concede 1.70 at home and 1.00 away, whereas Žďár concede 1.80 at home and 1.30 away, so neither side looks especially secure and the under 2.5 goals line is favoured in both teams' distributions. The head-to-head record is the strongest argument for caution about the double chance, because the last two league meetings both ended as draws, 0-0 in May 2026 and 2-2 in October 2025, and four of the ten listed meetings were drawn. Even so, Havlíčkův Brod won the most recent cup meeting 3-0 and have won three of the ten head-to-heads against Žďár's two, which is a modest historical lean rather than a decisive one. Overall, the evidence points to a genuinely close fixture in which home advantage, form, and the head-to-head draw pattern support the double chance, while the Poisson model and Žďár's away scoring threat keep the away side live enough that the prediction should be treated as uncertain rather than comfortable.

Predicted winner

Havlíčkův Brod

Betting advice

Double chance : Havlíčkův Brod or draw

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Havlíčkův Brod 0–0 Žďár nad Sázavou (08 May 2026)
2. Žďár nad Sázavou 2–2 Havlíčkův Brod (05 Oct 2025)
3. Havlíčkův Brod 3–0 Žďár nad Sázavou (25 Jul 2025)
4. Žďár nad Sázavou 2–2 Havlíčkův Brod (23 Mar 2025)
5. Havlíčkův Brod 2–4 Žďár nad Sázavou (17 Aug 2024)