Hassania Agadir vs Maghreb Fès Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's 45% draw and 45% away split makes the double-chance advice the logical expression of a near-even contest, not a confident away win.
• Maghreb Fès's 85% head-to-head and 73% goals share sharply outweigh Hassania Agadir's stronger attack and defence ratings, explaining the away lean.
• Both teams won their only league match, so the 50% form parity is a one-game sample that cannot meaningfully separate them.
• Recent meetings produced 4-0, 0-2 and 2-2 scorelines, supporting the +1.5 goals component despite each side's modest single-match goal output.
• Hassania Agadir's 10% win probability is unusually low for a home side, so the model treats home advantage at Stade Adrar as largely neutralized.
• The Poisson goals values of zero for both teams indicate the goal projection rests on comparative and head-to-head data rather than current scoring rates.

Predicted winner

Maghreb Fès

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Maghreb Fès and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Maghreb Fès 4–0 Hassania Agadir (29 Apr 2026)
2. Hassania Agadir 0–2 Maghreb Fès (20 Sep 2025)
3. Hassania Agadir 2–2 Maghreb Fès (19 Jan 2025)
4. Maghreb Fès 1–0 Hassania Agadir (27 Sep 2024)
5. Maghreb Fès 2–2 Hassania Agadir (27 May 2024)