Haro Deportivo vs Yagüe Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a Haro Deportivo win with a “+1.5 goals” combination, yet its own probabilities are unusually cautious at 45% home, 45% draw and only 10% away, so the headline advice is stronger than the underlying confidence. That tension is mirrored in the comparison metrics: Haro leads form, attack and Poisson (70 vs 30, 70 vs 30, and 71 vs 29), but Yagüe surprisingly edges the head-to-head and goals splits (62 vs 38 and 59 vs 41), while the overall totals still favour Haro at 55.70 against 44.30. Haro’s three-match form of DWW, with two wins and no defeats, contrasts with Yagüe’s LLW, which includes a two-match losing streak, although both samples are small enough that a single result could reshape them. Haro’s goals analysis shows a genuinely open profile: 7 goals scored at 2.30 per game but 5 conceded at 1.70, no clean sheets, and over 1.5 goals in two of three matches, which supports the goals half of the advice more than the defensive solidity of the winner half. Yagüe’s numbers are tighter and more contradictory, with only 3 goals scored at 1.00 per game, all of them in the 31-45 minute window, and 4 conceded at 1.30, yet their 1-0 win over River Ebro shows they can keep a clean sheet at home. The last-five records add further qualification: Haro’s sequence includes a 4-3 home win and a 2-1 away win but also a 1-4 home loss to Náxara, while Yagüe’s most recent five mix a 1-0 win with three defeats and a 4-4 draw, suggesting volatility rather than a clear downward or upward trend. The head-to-head record is the strongest counterweight to the model’s pick, since Yagüe have won two of the last three meetings, including a 2-1 away win in February 2026 and a 2-1 home win in April 2025, while Haro’s only recent success in the series was a 5-2 home win in October 2025. Taken together, the evidence supports a plausible Haro edge on current form and attacking output, but the 45% draw probability, Yagüe’s head-to-head advantage and the lack of defensive control on both sides mean the combination advice should be treated as a tentative lean rather than a firm conclusion.

Predicted winner

Haro Deportivo

Betting advice

Combo Winner : Haro Deportivo and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Yagüe 1–2 Haro Deportivo (21 Feb 2026)
2. Haro Deportivo 2–5 Yagüe (12 Oct 2025)
3. Yagüe 2–1 Haro Deportivo (05 Apr 2025)
4. Haro Deportivo 0–0 Yagüe (24 Nov 2024)
5. Yagüe 2–2 Haro Deportivo (04 Feb 2023)