Harkemase Boys vs VV Scherpenzeel Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a double chance on Harkemase Boys or draw, but its own probabilities are nearly flat at 35% home, 35% draw and 30% away, so the advice reflects a marginal edge rather than a clear favourite. That narrow margin is consistent with the comparison metrics, where Harkemase Boys lead on attack (52 vs 48), defence (40 vs 60), Poisson (59 vs 41) and goals (57 vs 43), yet trail on form (46 vs 54) and sit level on head-to-head (50 vs 50). The form split is the main counterweight: Harkemase Boys are unbeaten across six league games with five wins and one draw, while VV Scherpenzeel have also won five of six but lost once, so the away side's higher form score rests on a small sample rather than a large gap in results. The defensive numbers sharpen that contrast, because Harkemase Boys concede 1.70 goals per home game against VV Scherpenzeel's 0.70 at home, even though the away side's away defence is far looser at 1.70 per game. Harkemase Boys' goals profile is the more productive one overall, averaging 2.20 per game against 1.80, with 13 goals scored and seven conceded compared with 11 scored and seven conceded for VV Scherpenzeel. Both teams' last-five records show only one defeat each, but the shape differs: Harkemase Boys mixed a 5-3 home win over Hercules and a 2-1 away win at SVZW with a 1-1 draw against Staphorst and a 0-1 home loss to Excelsior '31, while VV Scherpenzeel won four straight before a 1-4 away defeat at AFC '34. The head-to-head record is split one win apiece, with Harkemase Boys winning 3-1 at home in September 2025 and VV Scherpenzeel winning 2-1 at home in January 2026, which helps explain why the model gives no edge in that category. Minute-by-minute goal timing is unavailable for both teams, so no inference can be drawn about when either side scores or concedes. Taken together, the evidence supports a cautious double chance rather than a confident home win, since Harkemase Boys' superior attacking and Poisson numbers are offset by VV Scherpenzeel's better form and stronger home defensive record.

Predicted winner

Harkemase Boys

Betting advice

Double chance : Harkemase Boys or draw

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

—

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. VV Scherpenzeel 2–1 Harkemase Boys (31 Jan 2026)
2. Harkemase Boys 3–1 VV Scherpenzeel (06 Sep 2025)