Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Ironi Karmiel Prediction
Match prediction
- The model's 45% away win and 45% draw probabilities make the double-chance advice the logical expression of a near-even split.
- Karmiel's superior form, defence, and Poisson ratings support their edge, though the 10% home probability seems harsh given Umm al-Fahm's unbeaten start.
- Both head-to-head meetings were decided by a single 1-0 scoreline, so the +1.5 goals component rests on current scoring patterns rather than this fixture's history.
- Umm al-Fahm have drawn twice at home while Karmiel drew their last two, reinforcing the draw half of the double chance.
- Karmiel's 0.80 goals-against average against Umm al-Fahm's 2.00 explains the defensive gap driving the away-leaning probabilities.
- Every recent match for both sides produced at least two goals, giving the +1.5 goals advice stronger support than the outright winner call.
- Predicted winner
- Hapoel Ironi Karmiel
- Betting advice
- Combo Double chance : draw or Hapoel Ironi Karmiel and +1.5 goals
- Home win probability
- 10%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 45%
- Goals market
- +1.5
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Hapoel Umm al-Fahm | Hapoel Ironi Karmiel |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 38.0% | 62.0% |
| Attack | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| Defence | 33.0% | 67.0% |
| Poisson | 30.0% | 70.0% |
| H2h | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Goals | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Total | 41.3% | 58.7% |
Team form and goal analysis
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Recent form: DWD.
Average goals scored: 2.30 per match.
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel
Recent form: WWDD.
Average goals scored: 2.00 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1–0 Hapoel Ironi Karmiel (05 Feb 2026)
- Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 1–0 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (26 Sep 2025)