Hapoel Kfar Shalem vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's existing output gives Hapoel Kfar Shalem a 45% win probability and Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa only 10%, with the draw also at 45%, which is why the advice is a double chance on Hapoel Kfar Shalem or draw rather than a straight home win; the unusually large draw share suggests the model sees real two-way uncertainty despite the home side's advantages.
• The comparison metrics broadly reinforce that lean: form (63 vs 38), attack (77 vs 23), defence (35 vs 65) and Poisson (62 vs 38) all favour Hapoel Kfar Shalem, and the total scores (53.70 vs 46.50) point the same way, so the prediction is not resting on a single indicator.
• Two comparison metrics cut against the headline pick and help explain the elevated draw probability: head-to-head favours Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 60 to 40, and goals comparison also leans away (45 vs 55), meaning the model's home-side edge comes from current form and attack/defence quality rather than from this matchup's history or raw goal output.
• The team records show contrasting profiles over six games: Hapoel Kfar Shalem are WLWLDD with 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, unbeaten at home (2 wins, 1 draw) but winless away, while Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa are LLLWLL with 1 win and 5 losses, including 4 home defeats and a 2-6 home loss; that home/away split supports the home-leaning advice while the away side's single win shows they are not entirely without threat.
• The goals analysis adds nuance: Hapoel Kfar Shalem average 2.00 goals for and 2.50 against, with 8 scored at home (2.70 per game) but 10 conceded away (3.30 per game), whereas Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa average just 0.80 for and 2.30 against, with 13 of their 14 conceded goals coming at home (3.30 per game) and only 1 conceded away (0.50 per game); this suggests the visitors' away record is far more resilient than their overall numbers, which tempers confidence in a comfortable home win.
• The last-five records and head-to-head results together frame the fixture as high-variance: Hapoel Kfar Shalem's recent run includes 3-3 draws with Hapoel Afula and Maccabi Ahi Nazareth plus a 0-4 loss at Ashdod, while Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa lost four of five, yet the head-to-head shows the away side winning the two most recent meetings 4-1 and 3-1 and holding a 60-40 edge across ten encounters, so the double chance advice looks like a reasonable hedge rather than a strong home-win call.

Predicted winner

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

Betting advice

Double chance : Hapoel Kfar Shalem or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1–4 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (17 Apr 2026)
2. Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1–3 Hapoel Kfar Shalem (12 Dec 2025)
3. Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3–2 Hapoel Kfar Shalem (28 Feb 2025)
4. Hapoel Kfar Shalem 4–1 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (29 Oct 2024)
5. Hapoel Kfar Shalem 0–3 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (25 Feb 2022)