Haninge vs Smedby Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Haninge with a win-or-draw call and a +1.5 goals line, but its own probabilities are unusually balanced at 45% home, 45% draw and only 10% away, so the advice is better read as a hedge against a Smedby win than as a strong home endorsement. The comparison metrics reinforce that caution: Haninge lead on form (58 vs 42), attack (70 vs 30), Poisson (61 vs 39), goals (78 vs 22) and total (64.8 vs 35.2), yet Smedby hold the defensive edge (58 vs 42), which is the one counterweight preventing this from looking one-sided. Haninge's season profile supports the attacking tilt, with 54 goals scored at 2.50 per game against 42 conceded at 1.90, while Smedby have scored only 39 at 1.80 and conceded 30 at 1.40, so the goal expectation rests more on Haninge's output than on Smedby's. That distinction matters because Haninge's defensive record is split sharply by venue, conceding 1.40 at home but 2.50 away, and their 27 away goals against suggest the +1.5 line carries genuine risk if the game opens up. The last-five records complicate the picture further: Haninge have two wins and three defeats, including a 1-7 loss to Djurgardens IF and a 0-2 home defeat to Syrianska FC, while Smedby have one win, two draws and two defeats with just three goals scored across those five matches. Smedby's recent scoring drought, including 0-1 and 0-3 losses, weakens their case for an away win but also hints that the +1.5 goals component depends heavily on Haninge contributing most of the scoring. The head-to-head record is the most striking conflict with the overall trend, since Haninge lead it 80 to 20 but the actual results are mixed: Smedby won 4-1 in June 2026 and 2-0 in May 2024, while Haninge's 5-0 win in September 2024 is their only victory in the last five meetings. That small sample of five matches, spanning 2023 to 2026, is too thin to override the season-long metrics, but it does explain why the model stops short of a straight Haninge win and instead pairs the double chance with a modest goals line. Overall, the evidence points to Haninge as the stronger side on form, attack and goal output, with Smedby's better defence and recent head-to-head wins acting as qualifiers rather than contradictions, so the win-or-draw plus +1.5 goals advice looks like a reasonable compromise rather than a confident projection.

Predicted winner

Haninge

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Haninge or draw and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Smedby 1–4 Haninge (21 Jun 2026)
2. Haninge 5–0 Smedby (14 Sep 2024)
3. Smedby 0–2 Haninge (19 May 2024)
4. Smedby 0–3 Haninge (19 Aug 2023)
5. Haninge 0–3 Smedby (23 Apr 2023)