Hammarby W vs Eskilstuna United W Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model favours Hammarby W as the winner, yet its 45% home probability is matched by a 45% draw probability and only 10% for Eskilstuna United W, so the advice carries far less conviction than a typical favourite. That tension is softened by the comparison metrics, where Hammarby lead on form (71 versus 29), attack (59 versus 41), defence (60 versus 40), Poisson (82 versus 18), head-to-head (60 versus 40), goals (58 versus 42) and overall total (65 versus 35), suggesting the underlying data lean more strongly home than the split probabilities imply. The team analysis supports that lean, since Hammarby have 15 wins, two draws and two losses from 19 with a longest winning streak of eight, while Eskilstuna sit at eight wins, three draws and eight losses. Hammarby's goals analysis reinforces the same picture: 46 goals scored at 2.40 per game against only 10 conceded at 0.50, including 10 clean sheets and a single failure to score, whereas Eskilstuna have 18 scored at 0.90 and 22 conceded at 1.20, with nine blanks. The defensive gap looks especially decisive, as Hammarby have conceded more than 1.5 goals in none of their 19 matches, while Eskilstuna have shipped two or more on four occasions and failed to score in nearly half their games. Recent form is more mixed than the season-long numbers: Hammarby's last five available results show three wins and one loss, including a 5-0 home win over Gamla Upsala W and a 2-0 win over Rangers W but a 1-2 defeat at AIK W, while Eskilstuna's last five read one win, one draw and three losses, with a 6-0 win at Uppsala W offset by three blanks. The head-to-head record is genuinely awkward for the home side, because Eskilstuna won the most recent meeting 1-0 in May 2026 and have taken four of the seven listed encounters, including three victories at Hammarby IP, which helps explain why the draw probability is so elevated. The small samples in both the last-five and head-to-head sections mean those counter-signals should qualify rather than overturn the broader seasonal and Poisson evidence, and no under-over guidance is provided, so the goals markets remain unaddressed. On balance, the weight of form, defensive solidity and goal output points toward Hammarby W, but the unusually high draw probability and Eskilstuna's head-to-head record mean the existing advice should be treated as a lean rather than a confident outcome.

Predicted winner

Hammarby W

Betting advice

Winner : Hammarby W

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Eskilstuna United W 0–1 Hammarby W (27 May 2026)
2. Hammarby W 5–0 Eskilstuna United W (11 Mar 2023)
3. Eskilstuna United W 0–1 Hammarby W (14 Aug 2022)
4. Hammarby W 0–3 Eskilstuna United W (26 Mar 2022)
5. Hammarby W 0–2 Eskilstuna United W (20 Aug 2021)