Hamburger SV II vs Atlas Delmenhorst Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Hamburger SV II a 45% home win probability and the draw another 45%, leaving Atlas Delmenhorst at just 10%, which is why the advice is a double chance on Hamburger SV II or the draw rather than a straight home win. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where the home side leads on form (60.00 vs 40.00), attack (54.00 vs 46.00), defence (55.00 vs 45.00), head-to-head (80.00 vs 20.00) and goals (67.00 vs 33.00), yet the Poisson metric actually favours the away team 58.00 to 42.00, a clear internal conflict that helps explain why the draw probability is as high as the home win. The head-to-head record is thin but leans home: Hamburger SV II won 3-1 at home in October 2022, while the return in May 2023 finished 1-1 in Delmenhorst, so the only two meetings produced one home win and one draw without an away victory. Hamburger SV II's overall profile is unusually split, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10 games, and all 3 wins coming away from home (0 home wins, 4 home defeats), which directly undercuts the idea of a comfortable home advantage. Their last five results reinforce that volatility: a 4-0 away win at HSC Hannover and a 3-1 away win at SSV Jeddeloh were offset by home defeats to St. Pauli II (0-3) and Eintracht Norderstedt (0-2) plus a 4-0 loss at Weiche Flensburg. Their goals analysis shows the same imbalance, averaging 2.40 goals scored away but only 0.60 at home, while conceding 2.60 at home and 1.80 away, and they have failed to score in 3 of 5 home matches with no home clean sheets. Atlas Delmenhorst are more balanced but less explosive, with 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses, and their goal pattern is the mirror image: 2.20 scored at home versus 0.60 away, and 1.80 conceded at home versus 2.20 away, with 3 of their 5 away games producing no goal. Their last five include a 5-2 home win over Todesfelde and a 1-1 home draw with Eimsbütteler TV, but also heavy defeats to SSV Jeddeloh (0-5 away) and SV Drochtersen/Assel (0-3 at home), and notably 45% of the goals they concede arrive in the 46-60 minute window. Overall, the evidence points to a low-confidence lean toward Hamburger SV II avoiding defeat rather than winning, since their strong away form and head-to-head edge are offset by a winless home record, a Poisson model favouring the visitors, and a draw probability equal to the home win probability.

Predicted winner

Hamburger SV II

Betting advice

Double chance : Hamburger SV II or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Atlas Delmenhorst 1–1 Hamburger SV II (05 May 2023)
2. Hamburger SV II 3–1 Atlas Delmenhorst (29 Oct 2022)