Haiti vs Costa Rica Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's 45% home win and 45% draw probabilities, with Costa Rica at just 10%, align with the advice of a Haiti-or-draw double chance; the comparison metrics reinforce this lean, as Haiti holds a 100.00 form score versus Costa Rica's 0.00 and a 75.00 to 25.00 head-to-head edge, though the equal 50.00 attack ratings and zero Poisson values for both sides suggest the attacking separation is not as clear as the form gap implies.
• The defensive comparison is the most concrete differentiator: Haiti's 67.00 defence score against Costa Rica's 33.00, combined with the goals comparison (57.00 vs 43.00) and total comparison (62.30 vs 37.80), points to Haiti being the more balanced side, which supports the double-chance component of the advice rather than a straight win.
• Both teams' recent samples are extremely thin and volatile: Haiti's only tracked match is a 3-2 home win over Trinidad and Tobago, while Costa Rica's is a 3-4 home loss to Curaçao. Each team scored three and conceded at least two in that single fixture, which is consistent with the +2.5 goals leg of the advice but also shows how little data underpins the form and goals splits.
• The last-five records qualify the model's confidence: Haiti's run is one win followed by four defeats (to Morocco, Brazil, Scotland and Peru, scoring just three goals across those four losses), while Costa Rica's is four losses and a draw, including a 0-5 home defeat to Iran and a 0-3 loss to England. Both sides arrive in poor overall form, so the 45% draw probability looks like a reasonable hedge against the home-win leg.
• Goal-timing data adds nuance to the over 2.5 expectation: Haiti scored two of their three goals in the 76-90 window and conceded both goals in the 31-60 range, whereas Costa Rica scored all three goals in the first 45 minutes but conceded four after the 61st minute. This suggests late-game activity could push totals over the line, though it is drawn from a single match per team and should be treated as indicative rather than predictive.
• The head-to-head record is the strongest support for Haiti: across seven meetings Haiti won three (including the most recent, 1-0 in November 2025), Costa Rica won two, and two were drawn, with the 3-3 draw in September 2025 also fitting the over 2.5 theme. However, the three draws and Costa Rica's two wins show this fixture has often been close, which is why the model's advice pairs Haiti with the draw rather than backing a Haiti win outright.

Predicted winner

Haiti

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Haiti or draw and +2.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

+2.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Haiti 1–0 Costa Rica (14 Nov 2025)
2. Costa Rica 3–3 Haiti (10 Sep 2025)
3. Costa Rica 1–1 Haiti (18 Nov 2019)
4. Haiti 1–1 Costa Rica (11 Oct 2019)
5. Haiti 2–1 Costa Rica (25 Jun 2019)