Guijuelo vs Bembibre Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Guijuelo via a double-chance win-or-draw combined with a -3.5 goals line, assigning 45% to a home win, 45% to a draw, and only 10% to a Bembibre victory. That split is broadly consistent with the comparison metrics, where Guijuelo's head-to-head score of 80 versus 20 and goals score of 75 versus 25 point the same direction, and the overall totals of 59.60 against 40.40 reinforce a modest home edge. However, the form and attack/defence columns complicate that picture: Bembibre actually rates higher on form at 57 versus 43, while attack and defence are dead level at 50 apiece and the Poisson values sit at zero for both sides, suggesting the model's edge rests more on historical and goals-based inputs than on current form or a clear tactical mismatch. The team analysis shows both clubs have played only three league fixtures, so these samples are small and volatile: Guijuelo's LWL record includes a 3-1 away win at Turégano but also two 1-0 away defeats, while Bembibre's WDL includes a 2-0 away win at Cristo Atlético, a 1-1 home draw with Mirandés II, and a 0-2 home loss to Atlético Mansillés. The goals analysis adds nuance, as both teams have scored exactly three goals across those three games, with Guijuelo's goals arriving evenly across the 0-15, 46-60, and 76-90 windows and Bembibre's spread across the 0-15, 46-60, and 61-75 windows, while Bembibre conceded all three of their goals in the 76-90 window. Crucially, both sides' under/over splits show three of three matches staying under 3.5 goals, which directly supports the -3.5 goals component of the advice even though the double-chance leg carries more risk given the 45% draw share. The last-five records extend beyond the league sample and are less flattering: Guijuelo have lost four of five, including a 1-4 defeat at Unionistas II and a 1-2 home loss to Ribert, whereas Bembibre's five include a 4-1 home win over Becerril Campos and a 1-4 away loss at Palencia CF, so neither side arrives in convincing form. The head-to-head record is the strongest single pillar for the prediction, with Guijuelo unbeaten across the last four meetings: a 0-0 home draw in February 2026, a 2-1 away win in September 2025, a 1-0 home win in February 2022, and a 0-0 away draw in October 2021. Taken together, the evidence supports a cautious home-leaning double chance and a low-scoring expectation, but the level attack and defence ratings, the zero Poisson values, and Bembibre's superior form score mean the 10% away probability may understate the uncertainty in such a small sample.

Predicted winner

Guijuelo

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Guijuelo or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Guijuelo 0–0 Bembibre (08 Feb 2026)
2. Bembibre 1–2 Guijuelo (28 Sep 2025)
3. Guijuelo 1–0 Bembibre (13 Feb 2022)
4. Bembibre 0–0 Guijuelo (09 Oct 2021)