Guastatoya vs Aurora Prediction

Match prediction

• Guastatoya's superior form, defensive and Poisson metrics justify favoring them, but the model's 45% draw probability explains why double chance is safer than a straight win.
• Aurora's away record of zero wins and five defeats, with 2.60 goals conceded per away match, materially weakens their chances despite the modest 10% away probability.
• Guastatoya's recent five-match run of four wins and a draw contrasts sharply with Aurora's three losses in five, supporting the home-or-draw advice.
• Head-to-head results are mixed, with Guastatoya winning the last two meetings away but Aurora also winning at home, so the edge is real yet not decisive.
• Both teams' goal totals cluster under 2.5, suggesting a low-scoring contest that raises draw likelihood and reinforces the cautious double-chance selection.
• Aurora's two missed penalties and inability to keep away clean sheets add attacking wastefulness, further tilting the balance toward Guastatoya avoiding defeat.

Predicted winner

Guastatoya

Betting advice

Double chance : Guastatoya or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Aurora 0–1 Guastatoya (25 Jul 2026)
2. Aurora 0–1 Guastatoya (19 Mar 2026)
3. Guastatoya 2–2 Aurora (29 Jan 2026)
4. Guastatoya 3–2 Aurora (29 Sep 2025)
5. Aurora 1–0 Guastatoya (20 Jul 2025)