Guarabira vs Cruzeiro PB Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model favours Guarabira as the winner, yet its 45% home probability is matched by a 45% draw probability and only a 10% away chance, so the advice is best read as a lean rather than a clear separation. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Guarabira dominates form (80 versus 20), attack (93 versus 7), defence (100 versus 0) and Poisson (100 versus 0), but the head-to-head metric runs the other way at 20 versus 80 in Cruzeiro PB's favour. Guarabira's team analysis explains much of the bullishness: four wins from four with no draws or defeats, a 5-0 home win and a 0-6 away win, and four clean sheets while never failing to score. Cruzeiro PB's record is the mirror image in results if not in resilience, with no wins, three draws and one loss from four, and they have failed to score in three of those matches. The goals analysis sharpens that contrast, as Guarabira average 3.50 goals per game and have conceded none, whereas Cruzeiro PB average just 0.30 scored and 0.50 conceded, meaning their matches have generally been low-scoring and tight. The last-five records broadly agree with the season data: Guarabira show four straight wins before an older 2-2 draw, while Cruzeiro PB's most recent five are four draws and one defeat, including three 0-0 or 0-1 scorelines. The head-to-head record is the main counterweight, since Cruzeiro PB won the 2025 meeting 2-1 and the 2024 encounter finished 0-0, giving them the historical edge despite their current form. Because that head-to-head sample is only two matches and Guarabira's four-match sample is also small, the model's 45% draw probability plausibly reflects the risk that Cruzeiro PB's low-scoring, draw-heavy profile frustrates a stronger home side. Overall, the evidence supports Guarabira as the more likely winner on current form and defensive solidity, but the equal home and draw probabilities and the adverse head-to-head record mean the prediction should be treated as a modest lean rather than a confident outcome.

Predicted winner

Guarabira

Betting advice

Winner : Guarabira

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Cruzeiro PB 2–1 Guarabira (21 Sep 2025)
2. Guarabira 0–0 Cruzeiro PB (18 Sep 2024)