Guadeloupe vs St. Lucia Prediction

Match prediction

• St. Lucia's 45% win probability and equal draw share justify the double-chance advice, since Guadeloupe's 10% leaves the home side marginal.
• St. Lucia's superior form, attack, defence, and head-to-head metrics all point one direction, reinforcing the away-leaning double chance.
• The 3-0 St. Lucia win over Guadeloupe days earlier is the most direct evidence, though a single match can overstate the gap.
• Guadeloupe's Poisson value of 100 against St. Lucia's zero is a stark outlier that conflicts with the model's own away-leaning probabilities.
• St. Lucia's away record is weak, losing all away fixtures and failing to score in them, which tempers confidence in an outright away win.
• Guadeloupe scores late and concedes across both halves, suggesting the match stays open enough to keep the draw component live.

Predicted winner

St. Lucia

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or St. Lucia

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. St. Lucia 3–0 Guadeloupe (02 Oct 2026)
2. Guadeloupe 2–0 St. Lucia (15 Oct 2023)
3. St. Lucia 2–1 Guadeloupe (13 Oct 2023)