Guadalajara II vs Tarancón Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Tarancón with a "win or draw" double chance combined with under 3.5 goals, reflecting probabilities of 45% draw, 45% away win and only 10% for Guadalajara II, so the advice is essentially a bet against a home victory in a low-scoring game. That framing is supported by the comparison metrics, where Tarancón's form score of 75.00 dwarfs Guadalajara II's 25.00 and the head-to-head and goals columns read 100.00 in Tarancón's favour against 0.00 for the hosts, although the attack metrics are level at 50.00 each and the Poisson values are both 0.00, which suggests the model's edge comes more from form and history than from a clear attacking mismatch. The defensive split is modest rather than emphatic, with Guadalajara II at 43.00 and Tarancón at 57.00, and the overall totals of 39.30 versus 60.70 point to a moderate rather than overwhelming lean toward the visitors. Both teams' performance data describe a similar three-match sample: Guadalajara II have recorded LLD with no wins, one draw and two defeats, while Tarancón have gone LLW with one win and two losses, so neither side arrives in convincing form and the difference is largely that Tarancón have actually won a game. Their goal profiles reinforce the low-scoring expectation, since Guadalajara II have scored two and conceded four across three matches while Tarancón have also scored two but conceded three, and both failed to score in two of those three fixtures with no clean sheets recorded by either team. The goals analysis adds a timing dimension: Guadalajara II's goals are split evenly between the 0-15 and 46-60 windows, whereas Tarancón scored once in the 0-15 and once in the 76-90 range, and notably 75% of the goals Guadalajara II have conceded arrived in the 76-90 window, hinting at late vulnerability that could matter in a tight match. The last-five records extend the picture beyond the current season, with Guadalajara II showing a draw and three defeats before an older 2-0 win over Villarrubia, and Tarancón showing a 2-1 win over CD Villa followed by three defeats and a goalless draw, so both recent runs are poor and the samples are too small to treat as firm trends. The head-to-head record is the clearest historical signal, as Tarancón won the most recent meeting 3-0 at home in April 2026 and also won 1-0 away at Guadalajara II in December 2025, giving them two wins from two and explaining the 100.00 versus 0.00 head-to-head split. Taken together, the evidence supports the double-chance advice mainly through Tarancón's superior form score, their perfect head-to-head record and the generally low goal totals on both sides, but the level attack metrics, identical Poisson values and Tarancón's own two defeats in three games mean this should be read as a tentative lean rather than a confident one.

Predicted winner

Tarancón

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Tarancón and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Tarancón 3–0 Guadalajara II (25 Apr 2026)
2. Guadalajara II 0–1 Tarancón (14 Dec 2025)