Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Guadalajara Chivas via a double-chance call, assigning 45% to a home win and 45% to a draw against only 10% for a Queretaro victory, so the advice effectively treats the away side as a marginal threat. That framing is broadly consistent with the comparison metrics, where Chivas lead on form (58 vs 42), attack (70 vs 30), head-to-head (71 vs 29), goals (70 vs 30) and overall total (58.8 vs 41.2), though the Poisson split of 40 to 60 is the one clear counter-signal favouring Queretaro. Chivas' underlying record supports the stronger profile: nine matches yielding five wins, three draws and one loss, with 17 goals scored at 1.90 per game and only eight conceded at 0.90, including four clean sheets. Queretaro's eight matches produced four wins, two draws and two losses, and while their 1.40 goals-per-game output is modest, their defensive numbers are actually tighter than Chivas' on a per-game basis, conceding 1.00 overall and just 0.50 away from home. The last-five records reinforce the same tension, as Chivas went unbeaten with three wins and two draws, including a 5-2 home rout of Tijuana and 3-0 wins over Pumas and Atletico San Luis, whereas Queretaro also avoided defeat with two wins and two draws but scored only six goals across those five matches. The head-to-head record is the most direct qualifier of the away side's chances, since Chivas have lost only two of the last ten meetings and won the most recent encounter 2-1 at Estadio Akron, with four of those ten finishing level. Goal-timing data adds nuance rather than a decisive edge, as Chivas score most heavily in the 31-45 and 61-75 windows while Queretaro concede 57% of their goals after the hour, suggesting late-game pressure could matter. The main conflict to reconcile is that Chivas' superior form, attack and head-to-head record point toward the double chance, yet Queretaro's away defensive solidity and the Poisson model's 60% lean keep a low-scoring away result plausible. Overall, the evidence supports the existing win-or-draw advice as a reasonable but not comfortable position, with the draw probability matching the home win and the away win remaining a small but non-trivial possibility.

Predicted winner

Guadalajara Chivas

Betting advice

Double chance : Guadalajara Chivas or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Guadalajara Chivas 2–1 Club Queretaro (18 Jan 2026)
2. Club Queretaro 1–0 Guadalajara Chivas (23 Oct 2025)
3. Guadalajara Chivas 1–1 Club Queretaro (02 Feb 2025)
4. Club Queretaro 0–2 Guadalajara Chivas (17 Jul 2024)
5. Guadalajara Chivas 2–0 Club Queretaro (21 Apr 2024)