Guadalajara Chivas U21 vs Queretaro U21 Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Guadalajara Chivas U21 avoiding defeat, with a 45% home win and 45% draw probability against only 10% for Queretaro U21, so the double-chance advice reflects a strong but not decisive edge. That edge is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where form (100 versus 0), attack (83 versus 17) and Poisson (73 versus 27) all point the same way, while defence (65 versus 35) is a narrower gap and the head-to-head and goals splits sit level at 50–50. The overall comparison total of 64.20 to 35.80 captures this asymmetry, yet the 45% draw probability suggests the model still sees a meaningful chance of the favourite being held. Guadalajara's team analysis supports the favourite status more than the raw form string implies: they have five wins from eight with no draws, and their away record of four wins from five is notably stronger than one win from three at home. Queretaro's profile is far weaker, with one win and seven defeats in eight, no away wins at all, and five matches in which they failed to score, which helps explain their 0.80 goals-per-game average against Guadalajara's 1.60. The goals analysis adds nuance, however, since Guadalajara concede 1.70 per home game while Queretaro score only 1.00 at home and 0.50 away, so the defensive side of the favourite's case is less convincing than the attacking side. The last-five records show Guadalajara with two wins, two draws and one loss, including a 2-1 away win over Club America U21, whereas Queretaro have lost all four listed matches by a combined 0-9, though the missing fifth away entry means that sample is incomplete. The head-to-head record is the clearest counterweight: both meetings finished 1-0 to the home side, one for each team, so the 50–50 split offers no historical separation and slightly undercuts the idea of Guadalajara dominance. Taken together, the evidence supports the existing win-or-draw advice mainly through form, attack and Poisson, but the level head-to-head and goals splits, Guadalajara's modest home record and Queretaro's small sample of recent defeats mean the prediction should be treated as a lean rather than a certainty.

Predicted winner

Guadalajara Chivas U21

Betting advice

Double chance : Guadalajara Chivas U21 or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Guadalajara Chivas U21 1–0 Queretaro U21 (17 Jan 2026)
2. Queretaro U21 1–0 Guadalajara Chivas U21 (22 Oct 2025)