Groene Ster vs Gemert Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a draw-or-Gemert double chance, with the probabilities split evenly at 45% for both the draw and a Gemert win against only 10% for a Groene Ster victory. That caution around the home side is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Groene Ster's stronger attack score (53 versus 47) and defence score (44 versus 56) are outweighed by Gemert's clear Poisson edge (58 versus 42), goals score (70 versus 30) and total score (56.2 versus 43.8). The head-to-head section is the most one-sided input, with Gemert rated 100% against Groene Ster's 0%, and the recent meetings support that: Gemert won 2-1 away in April 2026 and 1-0 at home in November 2025, although the older record is mixed, including a 3-3 draw and a 3-0 Groene Ster win. Form is effectively level at 50.00 for each side, yet the underlying records differ in shape, with Groene Ster on LLDDWD and Gemert on DDLDWD, meaning Gemert have lost only once in six while Groene Ster have already lost twice. Groene Ster's goals analysis shows a relatively open profile, averaging 1.70 scored and 2.20 conceded, with both teams scoring in all six matches and over 2.5 goals landing in four of six, while Gemert average the same 1.70 scored but a tighter 1.70 conceded. The last-five records sharpen that contrast: Groene Ster followed a 6-1 home defeat by AFC Amsterdam with a 1-1 draw at EVV, whereas Gemert beat Ijsselmeervogels 3-0 away and won 2-0 at FC 's-Gravenzande, suggesting Gemert carry the better recent defensive resilience. Gemert's away form is a genuine qualifier, though, since their only defeat came on the road (3-2) and they have drawn three of six at home, so the double chance is not a claim of dominance. Overall, the evidence coheres around a low-confidence lean to Gemert avoiding defeat rather than a strong away win, because the even form and Groene Ster's home attacking threat temper the head-to-head and Poisson signals.

Predicted winner

Gemert

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Gemert

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

—

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Groene Ster 1–2 Gemert (12 Apr 2026)
2. Gemert 1–0 Groene Ster (09 Nov 2025)
3. Groene Ster 3–4 Gemert (25 May 2024)
4. Gemert 3–1 Groene Ster (17 Dec 2023)
5. Groene Ster 1–4 Gemert (26 Feb 2023)