Greenville Triumph vs Union Omaha Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a draw-or-Union Omaha double chance, with the probabilities split evenly at 45% for both the draw and an away win against only 10% for a Greenville Triumph victory. That stance is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Union Omaha leads across form (81 versus 19), attack (63 versus 38), defence (76 versus 24), Poisson (60 versus 40), head-to-head (71 versus 29), goals (56 versus 44) and the overall total (67.8 versus 32.3), leaving little room for a home-favouring reading. The team records tell a similar story: Union Omaha have 18 wins, only 6 defeats and no home losses across 28 matches, while Greenville have 15 defeats in 26 games and a stark away record of just 1 win, 2 draws and 10 losses. Greenville's recent form is especially poor, with four defeats in their last five including a 6-0 loss at Sarasota Paradise and a 0-1 home defeat to Corpus Christi, their only respite a 4-0 win over Naples. Union Omaha arrive in far better shape, unbeaten in their last five with four wins and a draw, scoring at least twice in four of those matches and conceding just four goals across the sequence. The goals analysis adds nuance rather than contradiction: Union Omaha average 1.80 goals for and only 1.10 against, whereas Greenville average 1.10 for and 1.80 against, and Greenville's scoring is heavily home-weighted at 1.70 per home game versus 0.50 away. Union Omaha's threat is concentrated late, with 36.73% of their goals coming in the 76-90 minute window, which could matter if the game stays tight, while Greenville concede most often in the 31-45 period (28.26%). The head-to-head record is the main qualifier, since Union Omaha have won four of the last ten meetings but Greenville won 3-0 at Paladin Stadium in March 2025 and drew 0-0 there in October 2025, showing the venue has not always been decisive. Overall, the weight of form, defensive solidity and head-to-head edge supports the draw-or-away advice, though the small five-match samples and Greenville's occasional home resilience mean the 45% draw share is best treated as a plausible outcome rather than a certainty.

Predicted winner

Union Omaha

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Union Omaha

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Union Omaha 2–0 Greenville Triumph (03 May 2026)
2. Greenville Triumph 0–0 Union Omaha (11 Oct 2025)
3. Union Omaha 1–0 Greenville Triumph (13 Jun 2025)
4. Greenville Triumph 3–0 Union Omaha (13 Mar 2025)
5. Union Omaha 2–1 Greenville Triumph (09 Nov 2024)