Grebbestad vs Skara Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Skara a double-chance edge of draw or away win, with the probabilities split evenly at 45% draw and 45% Skara against only 10% for Grebbestad, so the advice rests on Skara avoiding defeat rather than on a clear away victory. That caution is consistent with the comparison metrics, where Skara leads on form (65 vs 35), attack (62 vs 38), defence (70 vs 30) and the overall total (53.5 vs 46.5), yet the Poisson estimate is nearly level at 53 vs 47, suggesting the underlying goal model sees a much tighter contest than the form and defensive gaps imply. The head-to-head and goals metrics pull in the opposite direction, with Grebbestad ahead 67 to 33 on head-to-head and 62 to 38 on goals, which helps explain why the draw probability is as high as the away win rather than Skara being a dominant pick. Skara's season record of 15 wins, 5 draws and only 2 defeats across 22 matches, including 10 home wins without loss, marks them as the stronger side, while Grebbestad's 11 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats show a more volatile profile whose away form (6 wins, 0 draws, 5 losses) lacks the security of a draw. The goals analysis reinforces that contrast: Skara average 2.10 goals scored and just 1.00 conceded, with 0.60 against at home and six clean sheets, whereas Grebbestad average 1.80 scored and 1.50 conceded, and their totals of 39 scored and 32 conceded are inferior to Skara's 47 and 22. Recent form sharpens the picture, as Skara's last five read W-W-W-D-W with 13 goals scored and only 3 conceded, including a 5-0 home win and a 4-1 away win, while Grebbestad's last five are W-W-L-L-D, conceding in each of their last four and failing to score in a 0-1 home loss to Lidköping. The head-to-head record is the main counterweight and is genuinely mixed over a small three-match sample: Skara won 3-1 at home in May 2026, Grebbestad won 3-0 away in September 2025, and Grebbestad won 4-2 at home in April 2025, so the 67-33 head-to-head split toward Grebbestad reflects a short and alternating series rather than sustained dominance. Taken together, Skara's superior form, defence and recent scoring output support the draw-or-Skara advice, but the near-even Poisson projection, Grebbestad's head-to-head and goals edge, and Grebbestad's habit of winning away without drawing mean the double chance is a hedge against uncertainty rather than a confident call.

Predicted winner

Skara

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Skara

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Skara 3–1 Grebbestad (01 May 2026)
2. Skara 0–3 Grebbestad (13 Sep 2025)
3. Grebbestad 4–2 Skara (26 Apr 2025)