Gimnástica Segoviana vs SS Reyes Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Gimnástica Segoviana a 35% home win and 35% draw against SS Reyes, framing the advice as a double chance on the hosts plus over 1.5 goals, yet the comparison metrics lean heavily toward the visitors on form (70 versus 30), defence (88 versus 13) and Poisson (89 versus 11). That tension is partly resolved by the attack and head-to-head splits, where Gimnástica lead 60 to 40 going forward and 80 to 20 in the historical matchup, while the goals comparison is a stark 100 to 0 in the hosts' favour. The team analysis shows why the defensive numbers diverge: Gimnástica have lost twice in three (WLL), conceding five away at RSD Alcalá and two at home to Conquense, whereas SS Reyes are unbeaten in three (WWD) with two clean sheets and only one goal against. The goals analysis reinforces that contrast, with Gimnástica averaging 2.00 scored but 2.30 conceded per game, including a heavy 5-2 defeat, while SS Reyes average just 1.30 scored yet only 0.30 conceded, suggesting a low-scoring, defensively controlled profile. The last-five records qualify the small three-game samples: Gimnástica also beat Calvo Sotelo 3-0 and Leganés II 2-1, showing they can score, while SS Reyes' run includes a 0-3 loss to Atlético Baleares and a 1-1 draw with UD Logroñés, so their form is not flawless. The head-to-head record is the clearest counterweight to the form and defensive metrics, with Gimnástica winning 1-0 at home in February 2024 and drawing 0-0 away in October 2023, meaning SS Reyes have not beaten them in these two meetings. Overall, the evidence supports the double chance more than an outright home win, since the draw probability is equal to the home win and SS Reyes' defensive strength could suppress the game, while the +1.5 goals element is supported by Gimnástica's scoring and conceding rates but questioned by SS Reyes' low goals-against average. The main conflict is therefore between SS Reyes' superior current form and defensive record and Gimnástica's attacking output and head-to-head edge, which together make the combined advice plausible but far from certain.

Predicted winner

Gimnástica Segoviana

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Gimnástica Segoviana or draw and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Gimnástica Segoviana 1–0 SS Reyes (18 Feb 2024)
2. SS Reyes 0–0 Gimnástica Segoviana (08 Oct 2023)