Gimnasia Jujuy vs San Martin Tucuman Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's double-chance advice for Gimnasia Jujuy or draw rests on a narrow edge: home win and draw are each 35.0% versus 30.0% for a San Martin Tucuman away win, so the recommendation is better read as a lean toward avoiding an away defeat than as a strong home superiority.
• The comparison metrics broadly align with that lean but not uniformly: Gimnasia Jujuy leads on form (56 vs 44), attack (53 vs 47), defence (53 vs 47), Poisson (71 vs 29) and total (52.3 vs 47.7), while San Martin Tucuman leads on head-to-head (62 vs 38) and goals (57 vs 43), which is the main tension in the evidence.
• The Poisson split is the most emphatic single metric in the model's favour, yet it sits alongside a head-to-head record that tilts the other way, so the two signals should be treated as offsetting rather than as confirming each other.
• Gimnasia Jujuy's home/away split is stark: 11 wins, 3 draws and only 1 loss at home versus 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses away, with 28 goals for and 11 against at home (1.90 for, 0.70 against per game) compared with 17 for and 25 against away, which supports the home-leaning advice but also shows the team's overall record is heavily venue-dependent.
• San Martin Tucuman's profile is more draw-heavy and lower-scoring: 12 draws in 30 matches, 32 goals scored (1.10 per game) versus 30 conceded (1.00), and 11 clean sheets, with a home record of 5 wins, 8 draws and 2 losses against 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses away; this combination of resilience and modest attack helps explain why the draw carries 35.0% and why the away win is the least likely outcome.
• Recent form and the head-to-head sample both qualify the home lean: Gimnasia Jujuy's last five are W, W, D, D, D with no defeat, while San Martin Tucuman's are W, L, W, L, D, and the head-to-head shows San Martin winning the most recent meeting 2-0 and holding a 62 vs 38 edge, though several of those meetings were decided by single goals or at San Martin's own ground, so the historical gap may overstate the current balance.

Predicted winner

Gimnasia Jujuy

Betting advice

Double chance : Gimnasia Jujuy or draw

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. San Martin Tucuman 2–0 Gimnasia Jujuy (13 May 2026)
2. Gimnasia Jujuy 2–0 San Martin Tucuman (23 Jun 2024)
3. San Martin Tucuman 1–0 Gimnasia Jujuy (04 Feb 2024)
4. Gimnasia Jujuy 1–1 San Martin Tucuman (01 Oct 2022)
5. Gimnasia Jujuy —–— San Martin Tucuman (25 Apr 2020)