Gillingham vs Newport County Prediction
· Priestfield Stadium
Match prediction
- Gillingham's stronger recent form and attack ratings support the home side, though the model's 45% home win and 45% draw probabilities justify the double-chance advice.
- Newport's away record of three losses without a win in four undermines their 60% head-to-head edge, which spans multiple seasons and venues.
- Both defences rate equally at 50, so Gillingham's advantage rests on attack and form rather than a clear defensive edge.
- Newport concede heavily after the 60th minute, suggesting Gillingham can capitalise late if the match stays level.
- Gillingham's last five include three wins and two defeats, showing volatility that makes the draw component of the advice valuable.
- The low away win probability of 10% makes a Newport victory the least likely outcome, reinforcing the double-chance selection.
- Predicted winner
- Gillingham
- Betting advice
- Double chance : Gillingham or draw
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Gillingham | Newport County |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67.0% | 33.0% |
| Attack | 71.0% | 29.0% |
| Defence | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Poisson | 65.0% | 35.0% |
| H2h | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Goals | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| Total | 56.3% | 43.7% |
Team form and goal analysis
Gillingham
Recent form: LDDDWWWL.
Average goals scored: 1.40 per match.
Newport County
Recent form: WLDLLDDW.
Average goals scored: 1.50 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Gillingham 3–2 Newport County (17 Jan 2026)
- Newport County 1–1 Gillingham (01 Nov 2025)
- Newport County 1–3 Gillingham (20 Sep 2025)
- Newport County 3–1 Gillingham (04 Mar 2025)
- Gillingham 0–2 Newport County (22 Oct 2024)