Gévora vs Atlético Pueblonuevo Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Gévora, but its 45% home win probability is matched by a 45% draw probability, so the headline advice of a Gévora win with over 2.5 goals rests on a narrow edge rather than a clear separation. That edge is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Gévora's form score of 67 against 33 and Poisson score of 74 against 26 stand out, while attack, defence, head-to-head and goals metrics are all level at 50-50, and the overall totals of 56.8 versus 43.2 show only a moderate home tilt. The team analysis supports that tilt: Gévora have one win, one draw and one loss from three games with a 4-2 home win over Plasencia, whereas Atlético Pueblonuevo are winless with two draws and one loss, including a 4-1 defeat at CD Zafra. Gévora's goal profile is volatile, with four goals scored at home but none away and seven conceded overall, while Pueblonuevo have scored four and conceded seven, so both defences look leaky enough to make the over 2.5 component plausible. The goal-timing data adds nuance, as Gévora's four goals are spread evenly across the 16-75 minute bands and Pueblonuevo score half their goals in the 16-30 window, while Gévora concede 42.86% of their goals after the 76th minute, hinting at late-game risk. The last-five records qualify the form gap, since Gévora's sequence includes a 5-0 loss at Castuera and a 3-0 loss at Badajoz alongside the Plasencia win, and Pueblonuevo's run features a 1-1 draw at Santa Amalia and a 2-2 draw at Jaraíz, showing they can avoid defeat. The head-to-head record is the strongest counterweight to the win advice, as both meetings in 2025 ended 1-1, one at Gévora and one at Estadio Antonio Amaya, which is consistent with the elevated 45% draw probability. The small sample sizes of three league games per side and only two head-to-head meetings mean these patterns are suggestive rather than reliable, and the absence of venue and line-up data further limits confidence. Overall, the evidence jointly supports a slight Gévora advantage and a plausible case for goals, but the level attack, defence and head-to-head metrics, plus the recurring draws, mean the combo advice should be treated as a marginal lean rather than a firm conclusion.

Predicted winner

Gévora

Betting advice

Combo Winner : Gévora and +2.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

+2.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Gévora 1–1 Atlético Pueblonuevo (03 May 2026)
2. Atlético Pueblonuevo 1–1 Gévora (04 Jan 2026)