Georgia U21 vs Greece U21 Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Greece U21 a double-chance edge of draw or away, with the probabilities split evenly at 45% draw and 45% Greece and only 10% for a Georgia win, so the advice is essentially a bet against a home victory rather than a strong call on one outcome. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Greece lead form 63 to 37, attack 57 to 43, defence 78 to 22, Poisson 82 to 18, head-to-head 100 to 0, goals 100 to 0 and total 70 to 30, a sweep that is broad but also one-sided enough to warrant scepticism about how much of it is driven by the same underlying record. Georgia's team analysis shows a DDWLLDW sequence with two wins, three draws and two losses from seven, only one clean sheet and two failures to score, while Greece's WWWWWWL reflects six straight wins before a loss, five clean sheets and just one blank, which is the clearest statistical separation between the sides. The goals analysis sharpens that contrast: Greece average 3.00 scored and 0.60 conceded, with 21 goals for and only 4 against, whereas Georgia average 1.70 scored and 1.30 conceded, and Georgia's defensive record of 9 conceded across seven games is the weak point the model is likely punishing. Georgia's last five are mixed and slightly discouraging, with away defeats to Moldova U21 (2-3) and United States U20 (0-1) plus a home loss to Germany U21 (0-2), offset by a 4-1 win over Malta U21 and a 1-1 draw with Latvia U21. Greece's last five are more uneven than their overall form suggests, featuring a 1-1 draw away to Croatia U21 and home defeats to Qatar U23 (1-2) and Germany U21 (0-2), but also emphatic 5-0 and 4-0 home wins over Malta U21 and Northern Ireland U21. The head-to-head record is a single match, Greece U21 beating Georgia U21 3-0 at home in November 2025, which supports the away side but is too small a sample to treat as a reliable pattern. The main tension is that Greece's recent defeats to Qatar U23 and Germany U21 show they are not invulnerable, and Georgia's home fixtures have produced a win and a draw, so the 10% home probability may understate the chance of a surprise even if the draw-or-Greece advice remains the more defensible reading of the evidence.

Predicted winner

Greece U21

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Greece U21

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Greece U21 3–0 Georgia U21 (14 Nov 2025)