Gefle IF vs Vasalund Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Gefle IF a 45% home win probability and the draw another 45%, leaving Vasalund only 10%, which is why the advice is a double chance on Gefle or the draw rather than a straight home win. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where Gefle's form score of 88.00 dwarfs Vasalund's 13.00 and their defensive rating of 68.00 against 32.00 is a clear edge, yet the head-to-head metric runs the other way at 20.00 versus 80.00 and the goals comparison also favours Vasalund at 59.00 to 41.00. The Poisson figures of 61.00 for Gefle and 39.00 for Vasalund sit closer to the form and defensive evidence, suggesting the model treats the head-to-head and goals splits as partial counterweights rather than decisive signals. Gefle's season record of nine wins, three draws and eleven defeats across 23 matches is modest, and their 1.30 goals scored per game against 1.80 conceded shows a side that rarely dominates, while Vasalund's six wins, six draws and eleven losses with 1.50 scored and 2.10 conceded point to a leakier defence. The last-five records reinforce that contrast in momentum: Gefle have won two, drawn one and lost two, including a 1-0 away win at AFC Eskilstuna and a 3-1 home win over Järfälla, whereas Vasalund have lost four of five, conceding five at home to Assyriska FF and three to both Enköping and Umeå FC. Vasalund's away form is especially thin, with only one win in eleven away fixtures and a 2.30 goals-against average on the road, which helps explain why the model still leans toward Gefle despite the unfavourable head-to-head. The head-to-head record is the main source of tension, as Vasalund have won the last two meetings, 1-0 in May 2026 and 4-1 in August 2025, both at Skytteholms IP, although Gefle won the most recent Gavlevallen encounter 2-1 in April 2025. Both teams' goal-timing profiles add nuance, with Gefle scoring 34.48% of their goals after the 76th minute and Vasalund scoring 35.29% in the 46-60 window, while both concede heavily late, so the match could stay open even if the double-chance advice holds. Overall, the form, defensive and Poisson evidence jointly support the Gefle-or-draw advice, but the strong Vasalund head-to-head and goals-comparison numbers mean the 45% draw share is doing real work in the prediction rather than simply reflecting home advantage.

Predicted winner

Gefle IF

Betting advice

Double chance : Gefle IF or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

—

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Vasalund 1–0 Gefle IF (14 May 2026)
2. Vasalund 4–1 Gefle IF (10 Aug 2025)
3. Gefle IF 1–2 Vasalund (18 Apr 2025)
4. Gefle IF 3–0 Vasalund (09 Mar 2024)
5. Gefle IF 2–3 Vasalund (18 Mar 2023)