GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont Prediction
· Essity Stadium
Match prediction
- The model's 45% home and 45% draw probabilities justify the double-chance advice, since Penybont's 10% away share is the clear outlier.
- Penybont's superior recent form and attack ratings conflict with the home-favouring Poisson and head-to-head metrics, so the draw component absorbs genuine uncertainty.
- GAP Connah's 71% head-to-head and 78% goals dominance at Essity Stadium support home advantage, though Penybont's unbeaten record this season tempers that edge.
- Both defences rate identically at 50, and neither side has failed to score often, pointing toward a competitive match rather than a comfortable home win.
- Penybont's perfect away scoring and late-goal threat, plus GAP Connah's second-half concessions, suggest the home side may not hold a lead comfortably.
- The near-even split between home and draw probabilities means the double chance is the appropriate expression of this fixture's genuine ambiguity.
- Predicted winner
- GAP Connah S Quay FC
- Betting advice
- Double chance : GAP Connah S Quay FC or draw
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | GAP Connah S Quay FC | Penybont |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Attack | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| Defence | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Poisson | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| H2h | 71.0% | 29.0% |
| Goals | 78.0% | 22.0% |
| Total | 56.7% | 43.3% |
Team form and goal analysis
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Recent form: LWWWWWDLWWW.
Average goals scored: 2.50 per match.
Penybont
Recent form: DWWWDDWWWWW.
Average goals scored: 2.00 per match.
Head-to-head record
- GAP Connah S Quay FC 2–1 Penybont (21 Mar 2026)
- Penybont 0–0 GAP Connah S Quay FC (14 Feb 2026)
- GAP Connah S Quay FC 4–0 Penybont (08 Nov 2025)
- Penybont 0–1 GAP Connah S Quay FC (30 Aug 2025)
- Penybont 1–0 GAP Connah S Quay FC (04 Jan 2025)