Germany · Regionalliga - SudWest
FSV Mainz 05 II vs Freiburg II Prediction
Match prediction
- Freiburg II's unbeaten away record and superior form justify favoring them, though four draws in eight matches explain why the model hedges with double chance.
- Mainz II's zero clean sheets and 2.10 goals conceded per game undermine any home advantage, supporting the away-or-draw advice.
- The head-to-head record leans heavily toward Freiburg II, but Mainz II's recent 2-1 away win shows this fixture can still surprise.
- Freiburg II's attack and defence metrics both clearly outrank Mainz II's, reinforcing the model's 45% away win probability.
- Mainz II's three wins all came by single-goal margins, suggesting they can compete but rarely dominate, which supports covering the draw.
- Both teams' tendency toward low-scoring matches and Freiburg II's four draws indicate the draw component carries genuine weight in this advice.
- Predicted winner
- Freiburg II
- Betting advice
- Double chance : draw or Freiburg II
- Home win probability
- 10%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 45%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | FSV Mainz 05 II | Freiburg II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| Attack | 38.0% | 62.0% |
| Defence | 41.0% | 59.0% |
| Poisson | 30.0% | 70.0% |
| H2h | 20.0% | 80.0% |
| Goals | 31.0% | 69.0% |
| Total | 33.8% | 66.2% |
Team form and goal analysis
FSV Mainz 05 II
Recent form: LWLLWLLLW.
Average goals scored: 1.10 per match.
Freiburg II
Recent form: DWDDWDLW.
Average goals scored: 2.00 per match.
Head-to-head record
- FSV Mainz 05 II 0–4 Freiburg II (16 May 2026)
- Freiburg II 2–1 FSV Mainz 05 II (16 Nov 2025)
- Freiburg II 1–3 FSV Mainz 05 II (17 May 2025)
- FSV Mainz 05 II 0–1 Freiburg II (16 Nov 2024)
- Freiburg II 3–1 FSV Mainz 05 II (28 Feb 2021)