Friedberg vs TuBa Pohlheim Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Friedberg a 45% home win and 45% draw probability against only 10% for TuBa Pohlheim, so the advised double chance plus over 1.5 goals rests on a strong but not decisive lean toward the home side. That lean is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Friedberg leads on form (59 vs 41), attack (63 vs 38), Poisson (56 vs 44), goals (90 vs 10) and total (63 vs 37.2), while the head-to-head score of 100 to 0 reflects a very small two-match sample rather than a durable pattern. The two meetings do point the same way, with Friedberg winning 6-1 at home in October 2025 and 3-0 away in May 2026, yet such a tiny sample should qualify rather than confirm the 45% home probability. Both teams have played ten league games and both have won five, so the gap is narrower than the headline probabilities suggest; Friedberg's record is 5-3-2 and Pohlheim's 5-2-3, with Pohlheim actually stronger on the road (three away wins to Friedberg's two). Friedberg's attacking edge is visible in their 2.20 goals scored per game versus Pohlheim's 1.80, and their defensive numbers are also slightly better (1.40 conceded per game against 1.70), which together explain the model's preference. The last-five records add nuance: Friedberg have W-L-D-W-W including a 5-0 home win over Gießen and a 2-4 loss at Unter-Flockenbach, while Pohlheim have L-W-D-L-W, so both arrive with mixed recent form rather than clear momentum. The goals analysis supports the over 1.5 element, since Friedberg have gone over 1.5 in six of ten matches and Pohlheim in six of ten, and neither side has failed to score in any of Pohlheim's ten games, suggesting goals are likely at both ends. However, Friedberg's clean-sheet record is split entirely at home (two at home, none away) and Pohlheim have kept only one clean sheet all season, which weakens any expectation of a low-scoring or one-sided contest. The main tension is that a 45% draw probability sits level with the home win despite Friedberg's superior metrics, implying the model sees real risk in a tight match, so the double chance is the safer expression of this evidence than a straight home victory.

Predicted winner

Friedberg

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Friedberg or draw and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. TuBa Pohlheim 0–3 Friedberg (17 May 2026)
2. Friedberg 6–1 TuBa Pohlheim (25 Oct 2025)