Fratria vs Spartak Pleven Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Fratria via a double chance at 45% home win and 45% draw against only 10% for Spartak Pleven, implying the away side is seen as a marginal threat rather than a genuine contender. That framing is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Fratria leads on form (60 vs 40), attack (58 vs 42), defence (71 vs 29) and most starkly on Poisson (79 vs 21), though the head-to-head split sits level at 50-50 and the goals metric actually favours Spartak Pleven 60-40. The overall totals still tilt to Fratria at 59.70 versus 40.30, suggesting the goals-metric anomaly is a narrower signal than the broader performance picture. Fratria's ten-match record of five wins, four draws and one loss, including a three-match winning streak and a three-match drawing streak, points to a side that is hard to beat but not always decisive, which fits a draw-inclusive recommendation. Their defensive profile is the clearest separator: 0.80 goals conceded per game overall, only three at home across five matches, four clean sheets and a single failure to score, while Spartak Pleven have conceded 1.90 per game and 2.60 per away match, including a 5-1 loss at CSKA Sofia II. Spartak Pleven's form line of WWDLLLLWLW, with a four-match losing streak embedded in it, and four scoreless matches in ten, suggests their four wins have been punctuated by serious lapses rather than sustained quality. The last-five records sharpen this: Fratria are unbeaten with two wins and three draws, conceding just once in their last two outings, whereas Spartak Pleven have lost three of five, including a 3-0 defeat at Chernomorets and a 2-0 home loss to Vihren, with their only recent wins coming by single-goal margins at home. The head-to-head record offers the strongest counterweight, since the four meetings produced two draws, one Fratria home win and one Spartak Pleven away win, so the 50-50 split warns against treating Fratria's statistical edge as decisive. Goal-timing data adds a further qualifier: Fratria score 28.57% of their goals in the 76-90 window but also concede 37.50% in both the opening and closing quarters, while Spartak Pleven concede 36.84% between the 61st and 75th minute, hinting that late-game volatility could unsettle an otherwise controlled home performance. On balance, the evidence supports the cautious double-chance advice rather than a straight home win, because Fratria's defensive solidity and superior form are offset by a level head-to-head and a goals metric that favours the visitors.

Predicted winner

Fratria

Betting advice

Double chance : Fratria or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Spartak Pleven 1–1 Fratria (16 Apr 2026)
2. Fratria 1–0 Spartak Pleven (20 Oct 2025)
3. Fratria 0–2 Spartak Pleven (01 Mar 2025)
4. Spartak Pleven 0–0 Fratria (18 Aug 2024)