Formentera vs PE Sant Jordi Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Formentera a 45% win probability and the draw another 45%, leaving PE Sant Jordi at just 10%, which frames the advice of a Formentera-or-draw double chance combined with over 1.5 goals as a cautious rather than confident position. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Formentera's advantages in defence (67 vs 33), head-to-head (64 vs 36), goals (60 vs 40) and the overall total (53.7 vs 46.3) sit awkwardly against PE Sant Jordi's superior form (58 vs 42) and attack (64 vs 36), while the Poisson split of 53 to 47 is the narrowest of all. The team analysis helps explain this tension: Formentera are unbeaten in three with a DWD sequence, one home win and two away draws, whereas PE Sant Jordi are also unbeaten on WWD, having won twice and drawn once. Formentera's goal profile is modest, averaging 1.30 scored and 0.70 conceded per game, with their four goals spread late (40% in the 76-90 window) and their only two concessions coming in a single 16-30 minute bracket. PE Sant Jordi carry the heavier attacking output at 2.30 goals per game, including a 4.00 away average, but they also concede 1.30 per game and shipped two goals in each of their last two matches, which supports the over 1.5 element more than it undermines the double chance. The last-five records add nuance: Formentera's recent run includes a 3-1 home win over Porreres and goalless and 1-1 away draws, plus older wins over Cardassar and a 2-2 draw at Llosetense, showing a low-variance, hard-to-beat pattern. PE Sant Jordi's last five mix a 2-2 home draw with Andratx, a 4-2 away win at Sineu and a 1-0 home win over Migjorn against two defeats from May 2025, so their stronger form score rests partly on older, less relevant results. The head-to-head record is the clearest counterweight to the away side's form: across four meetings Formentera have two wins, including a 1-0 home victory in October 2024 and a 2-0 away win in February 2021, with a 3-3 draw in February 2025 and a 1-0 home loss in November 2020. Taken together, the evidence points to a close, low-margin contest in which Formentera's defensive and historical edge and PE Sant Jordi's attacking form pull in opposite directions, so the double chance and over 1.5 goals look like a reasonable but far from certain reading of a small three-match sample.

Predicted winner

Formentera

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Formentera or draw and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. PE Sant Jordi 3–3 Formentera (22 Feb 2025)
2. Formentera 1–0 PE Sant Jordi (13 Oct 2024)
3. PE Sant Jordi 0–2 Formentera (06 Feb 2021)
4. Formentera 0–1 PE Sant Jordi (08 Nov 2020)