Folgore Caratese vs Desenzano Calvina Prediction

Match prediction

• The model gives Desenzano Calvina and the draw identical 45% probabilities, which directly justifies the double-chance advice rather than an outright away win.
• Folgore Caratese's 10% win probability is the weakest single outcome, so the model treats a home victory as the least likely result.
• Both teams share identical 50% form, yet Desenzano's superior defensive record and three clean sheets suggest their underlying profile is stronger than recent results alone imply.
• Caratese's attack rating exceeds Desenzano's, but their 2.00 home goals-against average exposes a defensive vulnerability that offsets that attacking edge.
• Desenzano's head-to-head dominance and goal metrics heavily favor them, though those meetings came in Serie D, weakening their relevance to this Serie C fixture.
• Desenzano's low scoring output and tendency toward draws, including four stalemates, explain why the model cannot separate them from a draw outcome.

Predicted winner

Desenzano Calvina

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Desenzano Calvina

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Folgore Caratese 0–1 Desenzano Calvina (09 Mar 2025)
2. Desenzano Calvina 3–0 Folgore Caratese (03 Nov 2024)
3. Folgore Caratese 0–2 Desenzano Calvina (07 Apr 2024)
4. Desenzano Calvina 0–0 Folgore Caratese (26 Nov 2023)
5. Desenzano Calvina 1–1 Folgore Caratese (05 Mar 2023)