Flota Świnoujście vs Unia Swarzędz Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Flota Świnoujście a 35% home win and 35% draw against Unia Swarzędz’s 30%, so the “Flota Świnoujście or draw” double chance rests on a narrow combined 70% edge rather than a clear favourite. That modest separation is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Flota’s form score of 83 versus 17 and Poisson score of 59 versus 41 point strongly toward the home side, while attack (55 vs 45) and defence (46 vs 54) offer only mild support. However, the head-to-head comparison flips this picture with 71 for Unia against 29 for Flota, and the goals comparison also favours the away side 68 to 32, so the advice is qualified by historical and scoring indicators that do not align with current form. Flota’s nine-match record of four wins, two draws and three losses includes a three-game winning streak but also heavy defeats such as 0-5 away to Grom Nowy Staw and 1-5 at home to Stargard Szczeciński, showing a volatile profile that makes the draw component of the double chance meaningful. Unia’s nine-match record of two wins, one draw and six losses is weaker overall, yet both wins came away from home and their away scoring average of 1.80 is higher than their home average of 0.50, suggesting they are more dangerous on the road than their form line implies. The goals analysis supports a low-to-moderate scoring game: Flota average 1.70 goals for and 1.70 against, while Unia average 1.20 for and 2.10 against, and Unia have failed to score in four of nine matches with no clean sheets at all. Flota’s last five results (loss, draw, win, loss, draw) and Unia’s (loss, loss, draw, loss, loss) both show inconsistency, but Unia’s sequence is more negative and includes a 3-4 away defeat to Polonia Środa and a 1-3 home loss to Luzino. The head-to-head record of eight meetings is the strongest counterweight to the prediction, with Unia winning five, Flota winning one and two draws, including a 2-2 draw in April 2026 and a 1-0 Unia away win in October 2025. Overall, the double chance looks defensible because Flota’s form and Poisson advantages plus Unia’s poor recent run and leaky defence outweigh the adverse head-to-head and goals metrics, but the low 35% home probability and Unia’s away scoring threat mean the draw is a genuine part of the advice rather than a formality.

Predicted winner

Flota Świnoujście

Betting advice

Double chance : Flota Świnoujście or draw

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Flota Świnoujście 2–2 Unia Swarzędz (25 Apr 2026)
2. Unia Swarzędz 0–1 Flota Świnoujście (04 Oct 2025)
3. Flota Świnoujście 2–3 Unia Swarzędz (19 Apr 2025)
4. Unia Swarzędz 4–1 Flota Świnoujście (20 Sep 2024)
5. Unia Swarzędz 4–0 Flota Świnoujście (18 May 2024)