Floresta vs Santa Cruz Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Santa Cruz a 45% win probability and Floresta only 10%, with the draw also at 45%, so the advice of a draw-or-Santa Cruz double chance combined with under 3.5 goals rests on a clear edge toward the visitors while still respecting how often these sides finish level. That edge is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Santa Cruz leads on form (59 to 41), attack (55 to 45), Poisson (59 to 41), goals (64 to 36), total (64.5 to 35.5) and especially head-to-head (75 to 25), with Floresta's only comparative strength being defence at 25 to 75. The defensive split is the main tension in the evidence, because Floresta's stronger defensive rating sits against Santa Cruz's much better overall profile, yet the goals analysis helps reconcile this: Santa Cruz concedes just 0.70 per game overall and only 0.50 at home, while Floresta scores a modest 1.00 per game and just 0.90 away. Floresta's own defensive record of 1.00 conceded per game is respectable but not enough to offset an attack that has produced only 23 goals in 22 matches, and their 3.5-goal under line is intact in all 22 matches, which supports the under component of the advice. Santa Cruz's last five are notably stronger, with four wins and a draw, including a 1-0 win over Floresta on 20 September 2026, whereas Floresta's last five read win-loss-win-loss-win and include a 1-0 defeat to Santa Cruz and a 1-0 home loss to Maringá. The head-to-head record also leans toward Santa Cruz, with one win and three draws in the last five meetings and no Floresta win in that span, though the 2021 away win for Santa Cruz and the 3-3 draw show this fixture has produced both tight and open games. Both teams have played 22 matches, and Santa Cruz's 11 wins against Floresta's 9 wins, plus Santa Cruz's superior away record of 5 wins and only 2 losses, further supports the visitors' edge. The probabilities and the comparison metrics therefore align on Santa Cruz being the stronger side, but the 45% draw probability and the low-scoring profile of both teams mean the double chance and under 3.5 goals combination is a cautious rather than a confident call.

Predicted winner

Santa Cruz

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Santa Cruz and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Santa Cruz 1–0 Floresta (20 Sep 2026)
2. Floresta 1–1 Santa Cruz (11 Apr 2026)
3. Santa Cruz 3–3 Floresta (20 Oct 2021)
4. Floresta 0–2 Santa Cruz (07 Aug 2021)
5. Santa Cruz 0–0 Floresta (05 Jun 2021)