Fleury 91 vs Caen Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's near-even split, with home and draw each at 35%, frames the double-chance advice as a low-conviction hedge rather than a clear edge.
• Fleury's superior attack and defensive ratings, plus a Poisson edge, support the home side's inclusion despite Caen's stronger overall form.
• Caen's perfect head-to-head record and superior goal metrics pull against the home lean, explaining why the draw carries equal probability.
• Fleury's home record shows only one win in five, weakening the case for backing them outright and justifying the draw cover.
• Caen's away form is volatile, with two losses in three, which offsets their stronger aggregate numbers and keeps the contest balanced.
• Both sides' recent matches and goal patterns suggest a tight, low-scoring affair, consistent with the cautious double-chance recommendation.

Predicted winner

Fleury 91

Betting advice

Double chance : Fleury 91 or draw

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Caen 1–0 Fleury 91 (06 Feb 2026)
2. Fleury 91 1–2 Caen (29 Aug 2025)