Fleury 91 vs Aubagne Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Fleury 91 a 45% home win and 45% draw probability, leaving Aubagne only 10%, which frames the advice of a Fleury-or-draw double chance combined with under 3.5 goals as a cautious lean rather than a strong home verdict. That caution is echoed by the comparison metrics, where Fleury dominate form (64 vs 36), attack (77 vs 23) and Poisson (100 vs 0), yet the head-to-head splits exactly 50-50 and the goals comparison actually tilts toward Aubagne (60 vs 40), so the aggregate picture is not one-sided. Fleury's season record of two wins, three draws and two losses across seven matches, with a recent sequence of DDLLWWD, shows a team that is hard to beat but rarely dominant, and their home scoring of 1.80 per game against 1.00 conceded supports the low-scoring, low-risk angle. Aubagne's form line of LLLWDLL and a total of one win, one draw and five defeats in seven matches explains their low win probability, and their away scoring average of 0.00 goals per game makes an away victory look especially unlikely. The goals analysis reinforces the under 3.5 case: Fleury have stayed under 3.5 in six of seven matches and Aubagne in all seven, while Aubagne have also failed to score in five of seven and never exceeded 2.5 goals in any match. The last-five records add nuance, since Fleury's 6-1 win over Villefranche and 2-1 win at Valenciennes show attacking upside, but those are offset by a 0-2 home loss to Orleans and a 1-1 draw with Thionville, suggesting inconsistency rather than sustained control. Aubagne's last five are similarly revealing, with a 2-0 home win over Bourg-en-bresse 01 and a 0-0 draw at Gobelins showing they can be resilient, but three defeats in which they scored just one goal in total underline their attacking limitations. The head-to-head record is the clearest counterweight to the home lean, as Aubagne won both 2025 meetings, 2-0 at Stade Robert Bobin and 1-2 at home, meaning the 50-50 split is based on a small two-match sample that nonetheless warns against treating Fleury as a safe favourite. Overall, the evidence supports the double-chance and under 3.5 combination through Fleury's defensive solidity, Aubagne's scoring drought and the strong under trends, but the draw-heavy profile, the even head-to-head and Aubagne's late-goal concession pattern (44.44% of goals against in the 76-90 window) mean the outcome remains genuinely uncertain rather than assured.

Predicted winner

Fleury 91

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Fleury 91 or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Aubagne 1–2 Fleury 91 (06 Mar 2026)
2. Fleury 91 0–2 Aubagne (26 Sep 2025)