Fittja vs Nacka Iliria Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model output gives Fittja a 35% home win probability and the same 35% draw probability, leaving Nacka Iliria at 30%, which is why the advice is the cautious double chance of Fittja or draw rather than a straight home win. That near-even split is consistent with the comparison metrics, where form and attack are identical at 50.00 for both sides, so the model is not treating either team as clearly superior in current output. The clearest statistical separation appears in defence, where Fittja rates 67.00 against Nacka Iliria's 33.00, and in the Poisson figures of 66.00 versus 34.00, both of which lean toward the home side despite the modest probability gap. However, the head-to-head and goals comparison metrics point the other way, with Nacka Iliria at 100.00 versus Fittja's 0.00 in head-to-head and 67.00 versus 33.00 in goals, creating a genuine conflict that helps explain why the draw carries as much weight as a Fittja win. That conflict is grounded in a single head-to-head meeting, a 2-1 Nacka Iliria home win in April 2026, which is too small a sample to treat as a durable pattern even though it is the only direct evidence available. The season records add further qualification: Fittja have 6 wins, 3 draws and 13 losses from 22 matches, while Nacka Iliria have 10 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses, so the away side's overall record is stronger even though the model still favours Fittja or draw. Both last-five records are mixed and low-scoring, with Fittja showing two wins, one draw and two losses and Nacka Iliria the same 2-1-2 shape, and neither team scored more than twice in any of those matches. The goals analysis reinforces how tight this fixture could be, as Fittja average 1.00 goal scored and 1.80 conceded per match while Nacka Iliria average 1.60 scored and 1.50 conceded, and both teams' under 2.5 goals counts are far larger than their over 2.5 counts. Late goals are a notable shared theme, with Fittja conceding 34.15% of their goals against in the 76-90 minute window and Nacka Iliria scoring 25.71% of their goals in the same period, which could make the closing stages disproportionately influential. Overall, the evidence supports the existing double-chance advice as a hedge rather than a confident call, because the home-leaning defensive and Poisson metrics are offset by Nacka Iliria's better season record, superior goals comparison and the only head-to-head result.

Predicted winner

Fittja

Betting advice

Double chance : Fittja or draw

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Nacka Iliria 2–1 Fittja (03 Apr 2026)