First Vienna W vs LASK W Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives First Vienna W a 45% home win and 45% draw against LASK W's 10%, framing the advice as a double chance on First Vienna W or draw rather than an outright win. That caution is consistent with the comparison metrics, where First Vienna W leads on form (71 versus 29), attack (63 versus 38) and head-to-head (60 versus 40), yet the Poisson split actually tilts to LASK W at 61 versus 39, and defence is only mildly in First Vienna's favour at 44 versus 56. The goals and total metrics are effectively level at 50-50 and 54.5 versus 45.7, so the aggregate picture is a modest edge rather than dominance, which helps explain why the draw probability is as high as the home win. First Vienna's form string of DDWDDLL and LASK's WLLLDLD both describe teams struggling for wins, and the underlying records reinforce that: First Vienna have one win, four draws and two losses from seven, while LASK have one win, two draws and four losses. First Vienna's home record is especially draw-heavy with four draws and one loss from five home fixtures, and their last five show two 1-1 draws plus heavy defeats to Rheindorf Altach (0-4) and St. Pölten (1-4), suggesting the home side is hard to beat but rarely convincing. LASK's last five are similarly mixed, featuring a 0-0 draw with Salzburg, a 2-2 draw at Rheindorf Altach, and three defeats in which they failed to score twice, and their goals analysis shows zero home goals across three home games against six away goals, so their attacking output is heavily venue-dependent. The goals analysis further qualifies the advice: First Vienna average 1.30 goals for and 2.00 against, LASK 0.90 for and 1.70 against, and both concede most heavily after the break, with First Vienna shipping 28.57% of goals in each of the 46-60 and 61-75 windows and LASK conceding 50% in the 61-75 window. The head-to-head record is the strongest counterweight to the Poisson signal, since First Vienna have won three of the last five meetings, including a 3-2 home win in May 2026 and a 2-1 home win in March 2025, although LASK won 3-2 away in March 2026 and 2-0 at First Vienna in October 2025. Overall, the evidence supports a narrow First Vienna advantage that is more about avoiding defeat than securing victory, with the high draw probability and LASK's Poisson edge acting as the main qualifications to the double-chance advice.

Predicted winner

First Vienna W

Betting advice

Double chance : First Vienna W or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. First Vienna W 3–2 LASK W (16 May 2026)
2. LASK W 2–3 First Vienna W (28 Mar 2026)
3. First Vienna W 0–2 LASK W (10 Oct 2025)
4. First Vienna W 2–1 LASK W (01 Mar 2025)
5. LASK W 3–2 First Vienna W (05 Oct 2024)