Firpo vs Águila Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Firpo a narrow edge for the double chance at 35% home, 35% draw and 30% away, so the advice of “Firpo or draw” rests on a combined 70% versus a still-substantial 30% for Águila. That split is not fully mirrored in the comparison metrics, where Águila lead form 61 to 39, attack 56 to 44 and defence 60 to 40, suggesting recent results favour the visitors even though the probabilities do not. Firpo’s counterweight comes from the Poisson and head-to-head columns, where they dominate 82 to 18 and 62 to 38 respectively, while goals and total are effectively level at 50–50 and 52.8–47.2. The team analysis explains part of that tension: Firpo have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10 games with 6 clean sheets, but all 5 wins came at home and they have none away, whereas Águila have 3 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 11 and have kept only 3 clean sheets. Firpo’s goals profile is strongly home-weighted, averaging 2.00 scored and 0.40 conceded at home against 0.70 and 1.30 away, while Águila average 2.40 scored and 1.80 conceded at home but just 0.70 and 0.80 away, so Águila’s away solidity could blunt Firpo’s main advantage. The last-five records add a further qualification: Firpo’s available run is D-W-L-L with a 0-0 draw against Cacahuatique, a 3-1 win over Atletico Balboa and defeats to CD Olimpia and Isidro Metapán, while Águila’s is W-W-D-D-W including a 1-0 away win at Platense and a 4-1 home win over Fuerte San Francisco. The head-to-head record is the most direct support for the advice, since the last meeting finished 1-1 and Firpo have won three of the ten listed encounters, with Águila winning four and three drawn, although Águila’s 3-1 and 2-1 away wins in 2025 show they can travel and take points. Overall, the double chance looks defensible because Firpo’s home form, clean sheets and Poisson and head-to-head edges offset Águila’s better form, attack and defence ratings, but the 35% draw probability and Águila’s 30% win share mean this is a close, uncertain call rather than a comfortable one.

Predicted winner

Firpo

Betting advice

Double chance : Firpo or draw

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Águila 1–1 Firpo (26 Jul 2026)
2. Firpo 0–1 Águila (17 May 2026)
3. Águila 1–2 Firpo (13 May 2026)
4. Águila 1–1 Firpo (01 May 2026)
5. Firpo 1–0 Águila (08 Mar 2026)