Feyenoord W vs PEC Zwolle W Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Feyenoord W a 45% home win probability and the same 45% draw probability, leaving PEC Zwolle W at just 10%, which frames the advice of a Feyenoord-or-draw double chance with over 1.5 goals as a cautious rather than emphatic position. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Feyenoord's form score of 67.00 and perfect head-to-head score of 100.00 sit alongside a modest attack rating of 43.00, while PEC Zwolle's attack rating of 57.00 is actually higher despite their weaker overall profile. The Poisson figures are the sharpest internal conflict, showing 13.00 for Feyenoord against 87.00 for PEC Zwolle, which pulls against the head-to-head and goals comparisons that both read 100.00 to 0.00 in Feyenoord's favour and suggests the model's components are not fully aligned. Both teams' five-match records are poor in different ways: Feyenoord's WLLLW includes heavy home defeats of 0-6 to PSV/Eindhoven W and 0-4 at Twente W, yet also away wins at Utrecht W (3-0) and a 4-1 home win over Vålerenga W, so their form is volatile rather than consistently strong. PEC Zwolle's LLLWL is similarly unstable, with a 4-3 away win at Utrecht W standing out against four defeats, including a 2-4 home loss to ADO Den Haag W and a 0-2 home loss to PSV/Eindhoven W. The goals analysis supports the over 1.5 element more than the double chance, since Feyenoord concede 2.60 goals per game overall and 4.00 at home, while PEC Zwolle also concede 2.60 per game, and both teams failed to score in only two of five matches. However, Feyenoord's home scoring average of just 0.50 goals per game is a genuine weakness that qualifies any expectation of a comfortable home win, even though their away average of 1.70 shows they can score when travelling. The head-to-head record is the strongest single pillar for the advice, with Feyenoord winning six of the last ten meetings and PEC Zwolle winning three, including a 6-0 Feyenoord away victory in March 2025 and a 4-0 home win in March 2024. Even so, the most recent meeting in February 2026 was a 1-0 PEC Zwolle home win and the December 2025 fixture was a narrow 1-0 Feyenoord home win, so the recent head-to-head margins have tightened considerably. Overall, the evidence supports the double chance and over 1.5 goals as a reasonable but not secure combination, because Feyenoord's head-to-head dominance and PEC Zwolle's leaky defence point one way while the Poisson split, Feyenoord's poor home scoring, and their 0-6 home defeat point the other.

Predicted winner

Feyenoord W

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Feyenoord W or draw and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. PEC Zwolle W 0–1 Feyenoord W (22 Feb 2026)
2. Feyenoord W 1–0 PEC Zwolle W (07 Dec 2025)
3. PEC Zwolle W 0–6 Feyenoord W (23 Mar 2025)
4. Feyenoord W 2–0 PEC Zwolle W (09 Nov 2024)
5. Feyenoord W 4–0 PEC Zwolle W (10 Mar 2024)