FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives VVV Venlo a 45% win probability and the draw another 45%, leaving FC Volendam at just 10%, which frames the advice of a draw-or-VVV double chance with over 1.5 goals as a cautious lean rather than a strong away verdict. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where VVV's form (67 vs 33) and defence (61 vs 39) scores favour the visitors, yet the Poisson measure swings sharply the other way at 86 for Volendam against 14 for VVV, while attack, head-to-head and goals all sit near even. The team records help explain this tension: Volendam's 3-0-4 split is extreme, with all three wins and a 6-1 best result at home but four away defeats including a 4-1 loss, whereas VVV's 5-2 record is more balanced and includes a 4-0 home win and a 1-3 away win. Volendam's goals analysis sharpens that home-away divide, as they average 3.70 scored and only 0.30 conceded at home but 1.50 scored and 3.30 conceded away, so the venue may matter more than the aggregate 2.40 goals-per-game figure. VVV's goal profile is steadier at 2.70 scored and 1.60 conceded per game, and they have scored in every match, which supports the over 1.5 element of the advice even if the double chance itself remains uncertain. The last-five records echo the same pattern, with Volendam alternating wins and losses (6-1 and 2-0 at home, 1-4, 3-5 and 0-1 away) while VVV have won four of five, including 3-1, 3-1 and 4-0, with their only defeat a 2-4 away loss. The head-to-head record is genuinely mixed across seven meetings, with three Volendam wins, three VVV wins and one goalless draw, and recent Eerste Divisie results split both ways, so it neither confirms nor overturns the model's near-even draw-or-away stance. Overall, the evidence points to a plausible but not comfortable VVV edge built on form and defensive consistency, qualified by Volendam's strong home scoring and the Poisson contradiction, while the goals data make the over 1.5 line look the more grounded part of the recommendation.

Predicted winner

VVV Venlo

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or VVV Venlo and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. VVV Venlo 2–1 FC Volendam (02 Aug 2025)
2. VVV Venlo 1–3 FC Volendam (22 Feb 2025)
3. FC Volendam 2–4 VVV Venlo (27 Sep 2024)
4. VVV Venlo 0–0 FC Volendam (04 Mar 2022)
5. FC Volendam 2–1 VVV Venlo (17 Sep 2021)