FC UFA vs Torpedo Moskva Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Torpedo Moskva with a draw-or-away double chance, assigning 45% to the draw and 45% to an away win while leaving FC UFA at just 10%, a split that reflects the visitors' broader statistical edge rather than any single dominant signal. That edge is consistent across the comparison metrics, where Torpedo lead on form (56 to 44), attack (58 to 42), defence (60 to 40), goals (60 to 40) and most starkly on Poisson (76 to 24), with the aggregate totals of 62.30 against 37.70 summarising the same directional picture. The team records qualify this, however: UFA have lost only twice in eleven matches and are unbeaten at home across six fixtures with three wins and three draws, so their low win probability sits alongside a genuinely resilient home profile rather than outright weakness. Torpedo's six wins in eleven include four away victories and three away clean sheets, and their defensive numbers are notably stronger on the road (0.40 goals conceded per away game) than at home (1.20), which supports the away component of the advice more than a straightforward home-versus-away reading would. The goals analysis adds nuance, since Torpedo average 1.90 goals scored and only 0.80 conceded overall, while UFA average 1.50 scored and 1.20 conceded, yet UFA's home scoring rate of 1.80 is higher than their away rate of 1.00, suggesting the venue partially offsets the visitors' defensive advantage. Recent form complicates the picture further, as UFA's last five produced one win, two draws and two losses with just four goals scored, whereas Torpedo's last five yielded two wins, one draw and two losses including a 4-1 away win but also a 0-2 defeat at Shinnik Yaroslavl. The head-to-head record is the strongest counterweight to the away-leaning advice, with all five meetings since 2023 ending level or in a one-goal decision and four of them drawn, including 1-1 in April 2026 and goalless draws in both 2025 fixtures. Those repeated stalemates help explain why the model splits the draw and away win evenly at 45% each rather than favouring Torpedo outright, and why the double chance is framed as draw-or-away instead of a single winner. The evidence therefore points to a low-margin contest in which Torpedo's superior aggregate metrics and away defensive record justify the existing advice, while UFA's home solidity and the heavily drawn head-to-head history keep the draw as an equally plausible outcome.

Predicted winner

Torpedo Moskva

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Torpedo Moskva

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. FC UFA 1–1 Torpedo Moskva (06 Apr 2026)
2. Torpedo Moskva 0–0 FC UFA (03 Sep 2025)
3. Torpedo Moskva 0–0 FC UFA (09 Mar 2025)
4. FC UFA 0–1 Torpedo Moskva (31 Aug 2024)
5. FC UFA 1–1 Torpedo Moskva (26 Sep 2023)