FC Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic Prediction
· ONEOK Field
Match prediction
- The model's even 45-45 split between home win and draw, with away at 10, frames the double-chance advice as the safer expression of a genuinely balanced fixture.
- Sacramento's stronger form and attack ratings conflict with Tulsa's superior Poisson and head-to-head scores, so the model hedges rather than backing a clear winner.
- Identical defence ratings of 50 for both sides suggest neither team holds a structural edge, supporting the draw component of the double chance.
- Tulsa's home scoring average of 1.00 against Sacramento's away average of 1.00 points to a low-scoring contest, consistent with the -3.5 goals advice.
- Both teams' goals-for distributions show almost all matches staying under 3.5, reinforcing the under recommendation as the more reliable half of the combo.
- Recent head-to-head results at ONEOK Field favour Tulsa without producing high scores, which aligns the home-or-draw lean with the low-goal expectation.
- Predicted winner
- FC Tulsa
- Betting advice
- Combo Double chance : FC Tulsa or draw and -3.5 goals
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- -3.5
Prediction comparison
| Factor | FC Tulsa | Sacramento Republic |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 35.0% | 65.0% |
| Attack | 38.0% | 62.0% |
| Defence | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Poisson | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| H2h | 71.0% | 29.0% |
| Goals | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Total | 52.2% | 47.8% |
Team form and goal analysis
FC Tulsa
Recent form: LDWDLDWWWDLWLWDWWLLWWDLDDW.
Average goals scored: 1.20 per match.
Sacramento Republic
Recent form: WDDLWDDWLLWLWDWWLDWDDDWDWW.
Average goals scored: 1.40 per match.
Head-to-head record
- FC Tulsa 1–0 Sacramento Republic (06 Aug 2026)
- Sacramento Republic 2–0 FC Tulsa (08 Mar 2026)
- Sacramento Republic 0–1 FC Tulsa (08 Jun 2025)
- FC Tulsa 1–0 Sacramento Republic (29 Mar 2025)
- FC Tulsa 0–0 Sacramento Republic (23 Jun 2024)