FC Tulsa vs New Mexico United Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's 45% home and 45% draw probabilities justify double chance rather than a straight win, since New Mexico's superior attack rating offsets Tulsa's defensive edge.
• Tulsa's home defensive record of 0.60 goals conceded per game supports the draw-inclusive advice, though New Mexico's away scoring average of 1.50 keeps a clean home win uncertain.
• Both sides enter with identical 50% form, and Tulsa's recent run of three draws in five suggests the stalemate component of the advice carries real weight.
• Tulsa's strong head-to-head and goals records at ONEOK Field, including a 3-0 win there, explain the home lean despite New Mexico's better overall attack metrics.
• New Mexico's tendency to score late, with over half their goals after the 60th minute, means Tulsa's lead could be vulnerable even if the home side controls early phases.
• The narrow Poisson split of 51 to 49 and low away win probability of 10% reinforce that covering the draw is the safer expression of this fixture.

Predicted winner

FC Tulsa

Betting advice

Double chance : FC Tulsa or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. New Mexico United 1–0 FC Tulsa (16 Aug 2026)
2. FC Tulsa 3–0 New Mexico United (16 Nov 2025)
3. New Mexico United 0–1 FC Tulsa (14 Sep 2025)
4. FC Tulsa 5–2 New Mexico United (10 Aug 2025)
5. FC Tulsa 1–1 New Mexico United (13 Oct 2024)