FC Bacău II vs CSM Adjud Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a draw or CSM Adjud double chance, with the probabilities split evenly at 45% draw and 45% away against only 10% for an FC Bacău II win. That stance is reinforced by the head-to-head record, where CSM Adjud won two of the three meetings, including both trips to FC Bacău II by 2-1 and 3-0, though the single Bacău win came at Adjud, so the venue pattern is not perfectly one-directional. The comparison metrics are more mixed than the headline probabilities suggest: form, attack and defence are all level at 50.00 for both sides, meaning those broad indicators offer no separation, while the Poisson split of 42% to 58% and the goals split of 22% to 78% tilt toward the visitors. Both teams' last-five records are identical in shape at three wins, one draw and one loss, but the composition differs, with FC Bacău II winning all three home games and losing away, while CSM Adjud won twice on the road and lost at home. That home-away asymmetry is a meaningful qualifier, since Bacău's perfect home record and two home clean sheets sit awkwardly against a prediction that gives them only a 10% win chance. The goals analysis shows both teams scoring eight goals across five matches at 1.60 per game, yet Bacău concede just 0.70 on average at home against 2.00 away, and Adjud score 2.00 away while conceding only 1.00 there, so the away side's numbers travel better. Neither team failed to score in any of their five matches, and no match for either side went over 2.5 goals, which points toward a tight, low-scoring contest rather than a comfortable away win. The total comparison of 42.80 to 57.20 mirrors the Poisson and goals splits, so the model's preference for Adjud rests mainly on head-to-head history and away-form weighting rather than on any form or attacking superiority. Because the samples are only five league matches and the form, attack and defence metrics are dead level, the double chance looks like a cautious hedge rather than a strong signal, and the even 45-45 draw-away split captures that uncertainty.

Predicted winner

CSM Adjud

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or CSM Adjud

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. FC Bacău II 1–2 CSM Adjud (08 May 2026)
2. FC Bacău II 0–3 CSM Adjud (06 Mar 2026)
3. CSM Adjud 2–1 FC Bacău II (11 Oct 2025)