Farense vs Chaves Prediction
Match prediction
- Farense's stronger form, attack, defence and Poisson ratings support the double chance, though the 45-45 split shows the model sees little separation from draw.
- Chaves' head-to-head edge conflicts with Farense's superior current metrics, which is why the advice protects against a draw rather than backing a straight win.
- Farense's unbeaten home record and Chaves' winless away form reinforce the home-or-draw selection.
- Both teams' goal totals cluster under 2.5, suggesting a tight, low-scoring match that raises draw risk and justifies the cautious double chance.
- Chaves' leaky defence and losing away record weaken their case, yet their head-to-head record warns against dismissing them entirely.
- The near-even home and draw probabilities, combined with Chaves' poor recent form, make the double chance the safer expression of Farense's overall edge.
- Predicted winner
- Farense
- Betting advice
- Double chance : Farense or draw
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Farense | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67.0% | 33.0% |
| Attack | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| Defence | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| Poisson | 83.0% | 17.0% |
| H2h | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| Goals | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Total | 58.5% | 41.5% |
Team form and goal analysis
Farense
Recent form: WWDLD.
Average goals scored: 1.40 per match.
Chaves
Recent form: LLDLW.
Average goals scored: 1.00 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Chaves 2–0 Farense (22 Feb 2026)
- Farense 0–2 Chaves (28 Sep 2025)
- Chaves 1–1 Farense (04 Feb 2024)
- Farense 5–0 Chaves (26 Aug 2023)
- Farense 1–2 Chaves (30 Apr 2022)